#8: We Have Been Feeling Our Growing Power

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It isn’t true that Donald Trump doesn’t know what he wants to do. He does know what he wants to do, he just doesn’t know how to do it, especially in the face of intense opposition.

Ironically, he could have accomplished 80% or so of his apparent goals thus far if he had listened in an all new and improved Trump-like approach, if he organized his administration with considerably more care, and if he reached out to certain concerned Republicans in an all new way. For those of us who have been worried that he might find a workable path forward, there isn’t a lot of chance that workable way will emerge, because he isn’t going to listen, organize or compromise better.

As the opposition of the rest of us intensifies, the breakdown between Trump and Congressional Republicans (especially in the Senate) will grow. That’s because public support matters to those Senators. Their deal was that they would support the Presidential agenda if Trump a) sanded off the edges of his most problematic proposals, and b) maintained sufficient political support to give them some cover.

Trump’s dilemma is that he remembers the crowds of base supporters from his campaign, and he knows what he promised them, and what he promised Steve Bannon. He also knows that it is something different than what he promised the broader set of Republican voters, and what he promised Mitch McConnell. It has become clear he can’t (or won’t?) reconcile those varying demands, especially with no idea how to manage a White House or government, and no one empowered to manage it on his behalf.

The resignation of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is not a misstep that will be easy to overcome. It will touch off new concerns from Trump’s own party and further embolden the rest of us, who were already feeling our growing power.

Three chairs of major Senate committees are standing in the way of strategies Trump holds dear. Armed Services chair John McCain can’t abide the Russia-United States relationship that Trump, Flynn and others have already implicitly or explicitly promised Vladimir Putin. Read John McCain's extraordinary rebuke of Trump's policies. Foreign Affairs committee chair Bob Corker has been spending his time talking to worried NATO allies and apologizing to Australia. Lamar Alexander, chair of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions is going his own way on the issue of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.

Yes, I understand that each of the three is trying to couch their own opposition within the context of Republican orthodoxy. I understand that Republican led “investigations” of issues like the Russian interference in the elections will not necessarily be obsessed with the complete truth. But we are talking about our country here, and whatever line of defense members of Trump’s own party construct is a good thing.

But, of course, it isn’t and won’t be even close to good enough. Because it’s not good enough and won’t ever be, we will flood the town halls hosted by members of Congress this winter and spring. Here’s a first list of those which are scheduled. And, because it isn’t good enough, we will win the 24 seats we need to take back the House in the fall of 2018, which is not so far away.

Here are three things we can do now:

1) Start the Congressional Campaign Efforts Today
	A month ago, none of the major national organizations were comprehending that the House will be in play in 2018. That has changed. Unfortunately, the House Democratic Campaign Committee and some state Democratic Party structures have yet to figure this out, but local groups organized under the rubric of Indivisible are picking up the slack. You can search Indivisible for a group near you that you can join. Chances are a sub-group will already have identified Congressional races which can be put into play to win back the 24 seats and you can choose to put energy and resources in that direction. For my money, Indivisible is still too focused on the tea party approach. Didn’t we already have one too many of those? Still, Indivisible is the best thing going in most parts of the country in terms of local organizing. With the contribution of political scientist Larry Sabato’s center at the University of Virginia, the understanding of which races to target continues to grow. Also, there is some good new analysis about what needs to happen with Trump between now and November 2018 for taking back the House to be possible. Put simply, an improvement in Trump’s low approval ratings would hurt our chances. I don’t think that is going to happen.
2) Plan Ahead on Three Major Issues
	There are three policy debates that are coming up in the next six months which can turn a lot of independent voters away from Trump and away from many of the Republicans in Congress. Our task here is to do a better job of articulating with friends, acquaintances and in letters to the editor and call-in radio shows and town halls and letters to Congress not just what we are against, but what we are for. First, there is the Affordable Care Act. In missive #6 I argued that either way we will win. Either Congress will: • not repeal the law. • repeal it and replace it with provisions that do not diminish coverage in any way. This includes no one of 20 million newly covered people losing their coverage because of the new law, including the 14+ million who gained their coverage through Medicaid expansion in 31 states; and continued protection of people with pre-existing conditions. This (or non-repeal) is the position we must advance. • or, they can repeal it with a wholly inadequate substitute. A major bloc of nearly 50 Republican Congressman organized as the Freedom Caucus are advocating this approach. It would be an awful result which would remove coverage from many millions, but we would win in the long run because Republicans will pay the political price. If it comes to that, we must oppose Democrats providing votes to give Paul Ryan a victory over his party’s own Freedom Caucus. If he ever wants these votes, we can accept no diminishment of the protections of the ACA. Second, coming soon are major debates over the continued sanctions of Russia for their armed intervention in the Ukraine and for intervening in the presidential elections. Here too independent voters will be with us if we aggressively articulate our position of keeping NATO strong, protecting democracies in the Baltics and elsewhere, and advancing democracy over totalitarian rule. As uneven a record as we Americans have had in our democracy, we are still a beacon around the world for self-determination, peaceful transfer of power and advancement of individual rights. Given how much freedom matters, Trump’s implication of equivalence between the US and Russia may be the most outrageous thing that he has said to date. Third, to be covered in the upcoming missive #9 is the emerging debate over tax policy. Trump and Republican leadership are already at odds over taxes on exports. We must prepare for an issue that can dwarf that one- wealth disparity. Any Republican proposal that survives the House will re-distribute wealth from the middle class to the wealthy, and these lines must be drawn.
3) Continue to Boost Non-Profits That Count
	Groups like the Southern Poverty Law Center, the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood have done well as thinking people with access to resources contemplate how to defend against what Donald Trump could do to America. We all have budgets and we will likely all be pushed to donate by nonprofits every day through the entire period of the Trump dysfunction. How do we sort out the ones to favor with our checks and the money we can find under the sofa cushion? Here are some criteria: 1) In which area(s) do we feel that the republic is most threatened by Trump? 2) In which area(s) do we feel that nonprofit organizations are critical in responding to those threats? For instance, we may well feel that Trump's comments on NATO will threaten the Baltics, but our best defense against that is likely to be the Senate and they will do that one without requiring our money. That may also be true regarding the emoluments clause and Trump’s conflicts of interest. It could be this will all be decided in the courts and the litigation will proceed whether we all donate or not. On the other side of the ledger, there is no chance of fighting back against the anti-environment executive orders without effective, concerted efforts of environmental organizations, especially since environmental statutes give Trump more discretion than he has in other areas. 3) Within an area of threat, are we more interested in sustaining local services or supporting national advocacy? 4) What do we think about the tactics of the group that is asking for our money? Can we see how they may be more effective than another organizations? Are their requests for our help well structured? Is their case for getting more resources a good one? Have we read of their successes? Do they seem to be overstating their impact? Do they have any special niche, like Southern Poverty Law Center has with regard to hate groups? 5) Do we favor groups that have strong grassroots ties? Would we rather give to organizations that have representation or activity at the local level?

We are gaining in our knowledge and we now know that we can do this. As always, let’s value how we can share information and ideas with each other, and how we can strengthen each other. I would appreciate whatever you can do to add to the list for this blog/e-blast/Facebook post. Thanks for staying with me.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#7: The Opposition We Have Mounted is Huge

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Let’s consider the good news! Americans are getting a civics lesson each day. With regard to executive orders or announced plans, can Donald Trump do that? Who could possibly stop that? What does that court action mean? When a Republic Senator criticizes a specific Trump proposal, when is that significant?

If we want the republic to be strong after this is all over, we cannot look away. There is no option but to learn our civics and band together, and so far, banding together is yielding great value. Republican Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia said with regards to the Affordable Care Act, “wherever I go, women are in my grill.” Let me promise you, Representative Brat, that your grill will be occupied from this point forward.

The intent of this blog/email blast/Facebook post is to sort out challenges and opportunities so that we collectively can reach our highest possible of effectiveness. Vigilance is the price of liberty. Opposition matters, resistance matters. The reason why the Republican caucus is stumbling and bumping on repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act is that they are about to own the issue of access to health care in America. Because of our collective focus and effort, they have two things they can do. They can do the right thing, which is to protect the level of universal access which we have been able to achieve. They can do the wrong thing and diminish that access, and pay a political price 21 months from now.

As opponents, we make choices every day. We decide what letter to send, what call to make (personalized notes and calls are most effective), who to donate to and when to go in the street. I understand and honor the people who say the Trump presidency is illegitimate and that opposition to all cabinet appointments is essential. But it is not the way I myself think. I know battle-picking is difficult, but I think sorting out the best opportunities for opposition is critical. I get that the excellent movement called Indivisible derives lessons for all of us from the Tea Party, and those are important lessons. But I also believe that having a second Tea Party is no way out of this morass.

Each of us decides for herself or himself. My own, yet to be proven, belief (which more than a few of my friends dismiss) is that selected Republicans read the same tweets and newspapers and, however meekly or carefully, sometimes look for ways to join the opposition to this assault on our nation by the president. Senators Bob Corker or Ben Sasse or Dean Heller or Jeff Flake or John McCain or Lamar Alexander or Susan Collins or Dean Heller or Lindsay Graham or Lisa Murkowski or even Mitch McConnell or Marco Rubio have expressed concerns on matters like the Muslim ban, and they can block the worst of the Trumpian excesses. They will do this regarding the Trump-Putin “bromance”, but they can’t do it regularly with political impunity. But I believe they will do it more and more. Even as a lifelong Democrat, I will celebrate each time they find the political or moral courage to do so. And I will fight for ways to show them the political consequences over time of not doing so.

That’s a huge issue going forward--- the extent to which Republicans will fight for the republic for which we stand.

Here are three things we can do:

1) Sort Out Executive Orders As We Fight Back
	Donald Trump’s executive orders issued thus far are a mishmash of things that are clearly within executive authority and announcements that showcase awful ideas but do nothing more than signal a battle to come. Here a first sort of some of the major orders, and which have the most traction. On executive orders the community of opposition must be careful to not be bamboozled. A great example of something where there is less than meets the eye in the short term is Trump’s threat to withdraw federal funding from “sanctuary” cities whose police are not always assisting federal efforts to apprehend undocumented persons. These threats of cutting off all federal funding are empty. Congress would have to pass specific sanctions and the Congressional action would have to overcome a filibuster by Democrats in the Senate. Moreover, the federal courts have found “cross-cutting” sanctions of state and local government to be an impermissible exercise of federal authority. Conservatives lawmakers and jurists have led that fight, seeing sanctions as a tool for an expansionist federal agenda they oppose. Permissible sanctions most often have been narrowed to withdrawal of funds in the area of the policy dispute, such as threatened cuts in transportation funds when the federal government mandated a national maximum speed limit during the Carter-era energy crisis. Thus, sanctions over the absence of police action in a sanctuary city would most likely be the reduction of federal assistance to that police department, an untenable position for Trump. Similarly, an executive order called for the elimination of the Dodd-Frank law regulating financial institutions, which Donald Trump made sound imminent. He can certainly weaken enforcement of the law but most of the action will be in Congress and the outcome (again, given the filibuster powers of 48 Senators) is not certain. Even with regard to the proposed walling off of the United States, Donald Trump has wall-building authority but some appropriations problems in finding the $15 billion he needs. Each opposing move must be tailored with a full sense of the powers the president has or lacks. That means on the Trump threats against sanctuary cities, opponents of Trump should determine whether they live in one of the 364 counties and/or 39 cities which he intends to target. The next step is to make certain the mayor, county executive, and city or county councilpersons are defending their position properly, and preparing for legislative battles in Congress and legal battles in the federal courts.
2) See What You Can Do About Republican Elected Officials
	Earlier in this missive, I talked about Republican Senators and their willingness or unwillingness to speak out against Trump’s abuse of our nation. The critical comments by Republican senators to date have been disappointing because they are never calculated to actually block an action. For instance, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio and others used the hearings on the Rex Tillerson nomination to complain about the Trump-Putin relationship and the dangers in the Ukraine, but they could have blocked the nomination from being sent to the floor until they got meaningful reassurances, and they did not. Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have taken courageous and important stands against Betsy DeVos, but unless and until they go look for and find a third Republican colleague those stands aren’t going to be as courageous and important as they might seem. At this point, Trump’s implication that Russia and the United States are equivalent when it comes to Putin-style killing of dissidents is causing some serious Republican heartburn. So now is a good time for us all to take on the project of writing a personal note to one of these Republican Senators who have much more oppositional promise than they have presently displayed. In fact, write to one of their senior aides, mark the envelope personal so it will get opened, put your heart into it and tell that person how much it matters to America if their boss intervenes. --- Dean Heller of Nevada, who is up for re-election in November, 2018. He is worried about losing Republican votes if he crosses Trump, and worried about losing independent voters if he does not. Write to his legislative assistant Emily Wilkinson, 324 Hart Office Building, DC 20510 --- Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who was a leader among Governors in supporting public schools and who in a long public career has shown a willingness to work across the aisle. Write to his national security assistant Erin Reif at 455 Dirksen Office Building, DC 20515 --- Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who has strong enough support in his home state to say what he wants, and who has thought Donald Trump to be unqualified from the beginning. Write to his legislative assistant Alyene Senger at 386A Russell Senate Office Building, DC 20515
3) Remember Who Needs Our Financial Support
	Now is a great time to support refugee assistance programs. Most often, they are nonprofits. Often different from immigrant advocacy and legal assistance programs (equally deserving of support), refugee assistance centers deliver indispensable direct services to arriving refugees, who need help gaining access to housing, education, employment and health care. The freezing of refugee movement into the United States has thrown the finances and the services of these organizations into turmoil.

This is no time to let our energies lag. At this point, the opposition we have collectively mounted is huge, and we are not going away. Doesn’t it seem like forever since we all started these efforts? We will prevail, and it matters hugely that we do. As always, please help me add to our own circle of conscience and action.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington