Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.
During the Constitutional Convention, Benjamin Franklin was approached by a citizen in a Philadelphia square outside the closed meetings. The woman said “Well, Doctor, what do we have, a republic or a monarchy?” And Dr. Franklin said, “A republic, if you can keep it.”
And so, we have tended for 230 years to our collective commitment to self-determination and the freedoms it generates. As a country, we have done some awful things and harbored searing injustices, but we have kept the republic. As much as there is a beacon anywhere for long-lasting democracy, we represent that beacon, however great its disrepair. We will not let that light dim through the actions of a man who has not been and will not be fit to be president.
When he swore an oath, we swore one too. His is not going well. Tweeting away on health care, he has displayed no understanding of either the system he wants to replace or what would come next. Worse, he has no need nor desire to understand these things. He said recently, “They are always talking about death. Obamacare is death”. In his public discourse, he is one short step away from “So’s your old man.”
In Washington, he has been found out by his own staff and cabinet heads, who know he wants sycophants. The Congress is about to pass sanctions on Russia that take us in the opposite direction from the Putin political embrace for which Trump had been yearning. Things are getting harder and harder for him as weeks go by. He watches Fox & Friends for their creative interpretation of the world, and tweets the night away. With the Mueller investigation and the Trumpian raging at Jeff Sessions, it is difficult to see his performance or voter approval improving.
Our oath is going well. Under these circumstances it is hard to take much joy in that, but the preliminary results are in. All together we have created a movement that will be sustainable throughout the four or fewer years of the Trump presidency. Trump’s support from independents has deteriorated. As Gallup notes, the average presidential approval rating by independents is 53%. Trump’s has fallen to 36%. Further, the news story about how his Republican base is undaunted is misleading. Support has lessened, and fewer than 30% of those polled are identifying as Republican in the first place.
Currently, it is not a problem that ours is a movement that has just a little coordination, innumerable priorities, no single leader, and an indistinct affirmative agenda. Certainly, all those things will have to change over time. For now, it is a blessing that we are sprawling and spirited and that we are not a Democratic Party project. Indivisible has been nearly indispensable, but there are countless initiatives and an unabated fervor. If you have remained fervent yourself, please keep that up.
If you have found your fervency flagging a little bit over time, or you are at least a little less focused that you had been, you may be forgetting how much you matter. Sorry to say, but the only way this works is that we all must remain relentless. For motivation, how about reminding yourself how you felt the morning after the election? If you have stopped being a participant and started being a spectator instead, come back right now, please.
The successful motion to proceed to the amendment process does not mean that the Senate will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, because they still don’t have 50 votes behind any course of action. Their first two major actions failed 57-43 (comprehensive bill) and 55-45 (repeal without replace). However, as described in missive #18, many Republican Senators are still thinking that it will be better for them over time if they pass a deeply unpopular bill to repeal and replace than if they refuse to do so. The national outpouring, the calls and emails and notes that you and your neighbors have sent, has already placed them in a deep quandary. Here are three things right now that will make it deeper:
| 1)Targeting State Fiscal Issues | |
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Mitch McConnell is going to use the upcoming amendment process to gauge how he can get to 50 votes. He has been inducing individual senators, trying to give them political “cover” by spending more on their key concerns, like the opioid crisis (Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia) or provider subsidies in areas with higher cost insurance (Lisa Murkowski of Alaska). The battle over extended Medicaid coverage is the most painful for Senators like Capito, Rob Portman of Ohio, and Dean Heller of Nevada. Their states accepted the Medicaid deal in the Alternative Care Act and do not want to turn back, since it would throw as many as hundreds of thousands of their constituents off their insurance. These Senators know what McConnell is going to end up with will be a bad fiscal deal for their states, because the revenues those states receive to cover low income citizens will be capped, and the expenditures will not be. Almost all states face constitutional requirements that their budgets be balanced annually. When revenues go down, throwing people off Medicaid is always a leading alternative. The current proposal would cost states $218 billion in federal support between 2020 and 2029. Dean Heller’s own Republican Governor Bryan Sandoval hates these cuts a lot. And, Heller is up for reelection in 2018. Let’s concentrate our voices here. As you know, send Dean Heller emails and do phone calls that are your own words. Something like “You know that with this one vote you would do fiscal harm to this state for decades.” Here’s three Heller calls to make or emails to write:
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2) Reinforcing Lisa Murkowski’s Planned Parenthood Defense |
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Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Susan Collins of Maine as the two Republican Senators who voted against proceeding with consideration of the bill. One of their primary motivations is protecting Planned Parenthood, whose federal funding for broader women’s health services would be cut to zero. They have received some good news from the Senate parliamentarian, who has ruled that a provision to Planned Parenthood is not subject to the budget reconciliation process and therefore would require 60 votes to cut off debate, not 51. Murkowski can and will use this for leverage, but her ultimate opposition to repeal and replace is not as predictable as that of Susan Collins. The quality of reproductive health care in America may depend upon her ultimate vote. Now is a wonderful time to reinforce the strong stand she has taken on this issue. Here’s who to tell:
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3) Make a Progress Payment |
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It is a possibility that the Senate will pass a bill that will be the worst piece of legislation in the past two decades. The number one idea of this bill is to enable the significant reduction in the number of people who receive health care in America. What a shameful thing this is. Let’s make a contribution to taking back the House as a declaration that this will not stand. Between now and mid-August, Congress will pass a bill to repeal and provide a “replacement”, or they will not. Let’s keep fighting for the latter outcome, but let’s keep getting ready for November 6, 2018. Giving through Swing Left’s district funds is an excellent way to give to races that are sure to count, and to stockpile money to help recruit the best challengers. |
This is going to keep going on. The Trump speech to the Boy Scouts is just one more day-to-day example that this man is unmoored by any understanding of what being President requires of him. There will be some more of this, no? And, of course, we will spend the fall on Mueller disclosures and actions unless Trump fires him before then and precipitates a constitutional crisis.
And then there is the Congress, clearly and resolutely taking the opposite course from Trump on sanctioning Russia. A number of commentators have opined that this is a symbol of Congress’ heightened resolve. Since members of Congress face almost no opposition in their districts to their being harder on Russia, it might be better to eschew the praise on this front.
So, we will expect more praiseworthy actions, at least from the Senate. Even if more such blessings appear, our relentlessness will continue. This is no time to avert our gaze or lose our focus.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
