#17: This Battle Will Consume the Summer

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Republicans will control Congress during the first two years of Donald Trump's presidency. During that time, some proposal will be advanced that stands out for its unsurpassed venality. There will be competition, of course, because in the upcoming months, more things will happen that would previously have been thought to be unthinkable.

But nothing says reprehensible more than the relationship between two of the primary elements of the Senate Republican health care bill.

First, removal of a 3.8% tax on the investment income of wealthy individuals will give an average of $45,500 a year to each of the top 1% in income. Second, the bill would push 22 million people off coverage, including 16 million next year.

Is there no shame? Is this what we have come to in the level of avoidable human deprivation and misery we will permit in the wealthiest nation in the world? This battle will consume the summer, but why not stop this now?

Don't believe that the "moderate" Republican senators targeted by AARP as possible "NO" votes are indifferent about how you feel. They are terrified by how you feel! They know this bill is hugely unpopular. They are weighing the political damage of doing what they mindlessly promised to do (repeal Obamacare without having a replacement) against the political damage of not doing it. Put your hand on that scale.

It will take some acts of faith and some summoning of energy to keep on making the calls, writing the letters and standing in the way. We will all do it for the love of our country, and in fear for what it will otherwise become.

Know your arguments. The nine "moderates" (see #1 below) other than Susan Collins and Dean Heller are waiting to state their intentions in hopes that either 1) the outcome will be decided without them, or 2) majority leader McConnell will offer them a "side deal" that would make a yes vote more palatable. These side deals will all be ruses:

• If the Senate puts more money in to a special fund for the opioid crises, they will ignore the role that private insurance or Medicaid plays in paying for treatment.

• If they put some more money into Medicaid, but continue their planned cap on payments to the states (thus ending Medicaid's status as an entitlement program) they will delay bleeding people off their coverage for a few more months. But when the first recession comes and states must balance their budgets while receiving less tax revenue, Medicaid hemorrhaging will ensue.

• If they maintain that people with pre-existing conditions are guaranteed coverage, they will enact a provision that enrollees must go six months of getting sicker and sicker before their coverage begins.

If we had a parliamentary system, this government would fall right now. But, November 6, 2018 will come soon and with it a Trump-blocking House of Representatives.

Sure, taking the Georgia seat or one of the other special elections would have been rewarding. However, we are running way ahead of the Congressional elections of November, 2016. At this point, the new Democratic margins applied to contestable seats would give us 40 new Democratic House members, and we only need 24. Refer to Missive #8 for how to pick your race, and put yourself in motion.

For now, it's all about the health care bill. Under pressure, Mitch McConnell has delayed the bill until after the 4th of July recess, giving us a chance to make the vacation memorable by doing three things:

1) Contribute to the Congressional Barrage
	As outlined in Missive #16, the AARP and several health care organizations have targeted 11 Republican senators as the prime candidates to provide the three votes needed to defeat the Senate proposal. The virtue of adding your voice to the AARP position is that their effort is already well articulated, and is seen as powerful. When we call these senatorial offices, or email them, we are joining the barrage. If there is any chance to talk to a human, it won't be by calling the main number. Use the numbers below to call the district office for the senator. Dean Heller - Nevada (702) 388-6605 Lisa Murkowski - Alaska (907) 271-3735 Dan Sullivan - Alaska (907) 271-5915 Jeff Flake - Arizona (602) 840-1891 Joni Ernst - Iowa (515) 284-4574 Chuck Grassley - Iowa (515) 288-1145 Rob Portman - Ohio (614) 469-6774 Lamar Alexander - Tennessee (615) 736-5129 Bob Corker - Tennessee (615) 279-8125 Shelley Moore Capito - West Virginia (304) 347-5372 Cory Gardner - Colorado (303) 391-5777 Or, call the Senator's principal aide on health care, using this directory handily provided by Indivisible.
2) Making Certain There Are Consequences
	After the House passed their ignoble version of the health care bill, three organizations upped the ante on making certain votes to decimate health care would not go unnoticed. Act Blue, the Daily Kos and Swing Left have set up targeted escrow accounts to make certain strong candidates are well supported in swing districts, including districts where the Republican congressional candidate won, even though Clinton beat Trump, or other swing districts where Republican Congressmen voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here's the Swing Left site. Let's each pick a dollar amount, multiply it by the number of times, Trump tweets in the next week and send the total amount in.
3) Bolster Health Care for All in Your Community
	Community Health Centers have been spread across the United States since the War on Poverty. They provide health care to the uninsured and the underinsured and they do their indispensable work in 9,000-neighborhoods and communities. Find out who is doing this critical work near you. Whether or not you can send them a check right now, make it your personal business to find out what their unmet needs are and who can help. Spread the word.

Early in the Revolution, Thomas Paine called for his fellow citizens not to be "summer soldiers" or "sunshine patriots."

We aren't in pitched battles with muskets and we don't need to be admonished. But it doesn't hurt to recall our anguish and fervor the day after the election, and the pledge we made to ourselves then. We can and will win this, but let's continue to fuel ourselves from that anguish and fervor.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#16: We Are a Part of a Massive Community of Conscience

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Even in the aftermath of November 8, many of us did not imagine what has since been wrought. We underestimated the extent to which Donald Trump would not know or would not care about how government is run. For the entire period of his presidency, his indifference to how government is managed will continue to be a critical factor in the ways his presidency is damaging the country.

Ironically, on some days this sloppiness provides as big of a barrier to him executing his agenda than the unacceptable nature of the agenda itself. It isn’t just the awfulness of his underlying ideas that are stalling his agenda, it is that his lack of knowledge and wholly unappealing temperament that keeps him from adopting courses of action that have a chance for success. We should not lull ourselves into thinking that health care reform or tax reform are inevitable losers for him. The resistance has tripped him up, but so have his own shoelaces.

Presidents Obama and Clinton and George W. Bush all had low approval ratings sometime in their presidency, but their ratings were impermanent and they always had an idea as to how to make them change. Because of the Comey testimony and even more so because of the Mueller assignment as independent counsel, Trump will have headwinds throughout his presidency. After Comey’s testimony, we were subjected to a bizarre ritual of obsequiousness in which Trump went around the cabinet table and asked each member to offer new words of praise. Past cabinet members from both parties would have walked away from this exercise. That he wanted or needed that ritual tells you what you need to know about this man.

Even with all this good bad news about the ways in which he has been neutralized so far, the damage to America is very real. Internationally, the job for Rex Tillerson and James Mattis is to clean up for him. Our international alliances are tattered. Trump finally confirmed that we will adhere to Article 5 of the NATO charter pledging mutual defense. Going forward, his bizarre application of “The Art of the Deal” to long time international relationships will get people killed.

It seems like all weeks post-election have been pivotal, but the period of time between now and the 4th of July Congressional recess will have great consequence. That’s because Senate Republicans will try to pass a health care bill to give the White House the illusion of legislative progress. They are in a very difficult position. If they can’t get a bill because they can’t or won’t meet the concerns of the Republican “moderates”, they won’t have the budget “savings” they need to use the reconciliation process to pass a tax reform bill with a simple majority. This is one of the times that Senate rules matter. Unless they pass a health care bill, they will need 60 votes to pass tax reform, and they will never get 60 votes for a tax bill that comforts the comfortable.

The situation Majority Leader McConnell is in would be difficult to make up. You could rephrase it and say “Unless Republican Senators figure out a way to throw more than 20 million people off health care, they aren’t going to have a way to provide a huge tax benefit for the most wealthy of Americans.”

So, Mitch McConnell has empaneled 13 male Republican Senators (and none of the 5 female Republican Senators) to meet behind closed doors to forge something that can rally 50 of the 52 Republicans Senators. It is a sad day that this is even thinkable for a minute, but it most certainly is preventable. This missive emphasizes three things you can do to defend health care for Americans:

1) Stop the Trump Health Care Charade
	Donald Trump just had a luncheon meeting with Republican Senators on the health care bill. Sources have indicated that he called the American Health Care Act which the House has passed “mean” and that he told Senators to pursue a bill that is “generous, kind, and with a heart.” The House bill that he called mean was previously described by Trump as “incredibly well crafted.” The level of cynicism behind this strategy is breathtaking. Trump’s strategy is to gain votes from Senators who love that the government offers protection to sick people and from Senators who hate that it does, the “non-mean” and the “mean”. The Senate working group will fashion a proposal that walks away from the 13 million people who have been provided Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act, but the provisions will slow the pace of the walk to perhaps a seven-year phase out. This is all about Making America Sick Again in a more measured Senate Republican way, with Donald Trump claiming a trophy for generosity in advancing a bill that could not be more hard hearted. What if they end up improving on the House bill so much that “only” 12 million people become uninsured? Is this the new credo for Republicanism---- “We are going to turn away from a lot of sick people, just not quite as many as you may have feared.” Please help get the word out now on this cynical approach. Call foul! Don’t let any impression stand that Donald Trump is doing a compassionate intervention. Select a local newspaper, a big city newspaper, a call-in show, Facebook and other social media sites, or public meetings to make sure people are understanding what is happening. You can’t be writing letters to the editor each week, but you can write one this week.
2) Help the AARP Target 11 Key Senators
	The AARP is not the bastion of American progressive thinking. It is the bastion of 35 million people over 55 whose organization is very angry about the House Bill. It is a leader in the coalition of organizations battling against the Senate proposals under consideration. The AARP is very concerned about the House’s diminishment of coverage for pre-existing conditions, and they are livid that the House proposal will permit insurers to charge premiums for 50 year olds as much as five times higher than those for younger people.  In response, AARP has targeted 11 Republican Senators who are on the fence. Please view the new AARP television ad calling for these Senators to do the right thing. Since these Senators are already well aware they are being targeted, call the number of the Senator’s main district office, tell them you have seen the ad, and that you fully support its concerns. Hooking onto the AARP ad will make your action doubly effective. District offices keep count of the calls and report to their Senator. Your calls will help make each of these 11 Senators nervous, and we only need 3 of them to do the right thing. Dean Heller - Nevada (702) 388-6605 Lisa Murkowski - Alaska (907) 271-3735 Dan Sullivan - Alaska (907) 271-5915 Jeff Flake - Arizona (602) 840-1891 Joni Ernst - Iowa (515) 284-4574 Chuck Grassley - Iowa (515) 288-1145 Rob Portman - Ohio (614) 469-6774 Lamar Alexander - Tennessee (615) 736-5129 Bob Corker - Tennessee (615) 279-8125 Shelley Moore Capito - West Virginia (304) 347-5372 Cory Gardner - Colorado (303) 391-5777
3) Make Certain Your State Legislators Have Joined This Battle
	As previous missives have stressed, one of the major problems in the Republican “alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act is the assault on the protection for the millions of Americans who have pre-existing conditions. The House bill established a process in which states could allow the exclusion of these Americans from an insurance pool. They instead would have access to a high-risk pool with some federal subsidies and with escalating costs. Ultimately, millions would be unable to gain coverage. The second major objection to the assault on health care is the elimination of the promise that brought 13 million low income Americans coverage after the Affordable Care Act was passed. The anticipated reduction or phase out of this expanded Medicaid coverage will burn up insurance cards in low income households in the 31 states who used this option to provide health care to the working poor. The block granting of a portion of these funds to the states and the phase out of the program is a sop thrown to Republican elected officials in these states who want to be able to argue that they prevented elimination of extended coverage. They will have extended coverage a bit, for some people, and will have extended the carnage in health care for low income Americans. They will also have created significant problems for their own state budgets. Right now the economy is strong but there is always a recession around the corner. If they allow the destruction of Medicaid expansion, the states will be trading a cow for some milk. At some time in the future, they will be faced with higher unemployment, more people eligible for assistance, and far less money to pay the bill. Families USA has detailed the situation of each state. Call your state legislator who is much more accessible than a member of Congress. Make sure they and their colleagues have told your states' member of Congress that they are heading your state toward an all new fiscal crisis.

Dr. King said "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that fervently. One way or another, I have been involved in how the public summons itself and works for a better, fairer more just government for 50 years. At one time or another, I have despaired for this nation and what it has done to people, and I have celebrated this nation and what it has done for people.

In all its inevitable messiness, I believe that the opposition that has emerged after the Trump election has the potential to become one of the great social movements of a century. Whatever role each of us plays in the resistance, we are doing this together, as a part of a massive, principled, tireless community of conscience. We take strength from knowing each day that there are millions of us who will continue to attend to this critical business.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington