#21: We Will Demonstrate Our Love for Our Country and its Promise

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

In some ways the first eight months of the Trump presidency has turned out as predicted, and feared. Too bad for the country that in other ways, it has been worse.

Donald Trump has demonstrated an unparalleled inability to mute or even check himself, even when the times have most demanded it. And, when the time has come to learn things he needs to know about how a governmental program operates, he has no interest. He is unmoored and undisciplined and unprincipled.

Republican leaders have mastered the art of the meaningful aside, where they note their concerns about this or that Presidential action or position but provide no real opposition. Most often, all this represents is just a little hedging of the bets, as they see his approval levels dropping. This level of inaction is even more disappointing because these Republican Senators know a lot more about Trump’s failings than we do. But now there are notable exceptions to their toeing of the line.

• Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and John McCain stopped the health care bill.
• The Senate sanctioned Russia in part for election interventions, and left Trump powerless to do anything about it.
• Key Republican Senators signaled that they will protect Robert Mueller.

Over time, the recent statement by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee may be the most telling. He is the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has had good relations with Trump, and he is a long way from being a moderate. He said: “The President has not yet been able to demonstrate the stability nor some of the competence that he needs to demonstrate for him to be successful… Recently he has not demonstrated that he understands the character of the nation.”

This was not a spontaneous outburst. This was a signal that Corker is not just concerned, but gravely concerned. As well he should be.

It is also a sign that the resistance in all of its sprawling intensity continues to be a force. Corker and others will find a better path faster with our continued help.

There is lore that through it all the Trump voters are standing by their man. There have been countless national news stories interviewing Trump supporters in swing states, the reporter nodding her or his head meaningfully while a voter says they like it that Trump says what he thinks. The polls tell a different story. Reflective of Trump’s decline in popularity, 20% or more of Trump’s voters have walked away from him.

Odds are Trump will not be in a position to run in 2020. So, the big referendum will be the Congressional elections of 2018. The most important polling number is the “generic” Congressional vote. Right now, we are polling 8 points ahead, which would roughly equate to winning 40 additional seats, which would take back the House.

This is not inevitable. Good Democratic House and Senate candidates are emerging, but we will need a stronger, clearer unified message beyond the current “Can you believe Donald Trump is president?” And we will need a fresh generation of national leaders. This will all come in time. For now, let’s remember that no one should ever be able to call into question our focus and our stamina.

While Congress is on recess, let’s attend to the attacks Donald Trump is making on the executive branch. The president has considerable leeway to weaken cabinet agencies, so we must target our efforts as carefully as possible. Let’s do these three things.

1) Fight to Save America’s Standing Abroad
	The good news on these three recommended items is that Republican Senators have already signaled that the federal budget that emerges will ignore the most draconian of Trump’s proposals. The least favorite of all the cuts among Senators is the 32% cut in the State Department’s budget and proposed reduction of 2,300 positions.  Now is a good time to generate an email to your own two Senators telling them how much you appreciate the bipartisan support of the State Department. Tell your Senator that the cuts that are proposed would diminish our nation’s role in the world, would endanger Americans abroad, and would move us toward militarizing more conflicts. Then write a note to Senator Bob Corker’s chief of staff and tell him how much you appreciate his Senator’s role in protecting the integrity of the State Department. Chief of Staff Todd Womack is at todd_womack@corker.senate.gov.
2) Help Protect the Environmental Protection Agency
	There are at least three major reasons why it is more difficult to protect the EPA than the State Department. First, Donald Trump named Scott Pruitt as EPA Administrator, who makes Rex Tillerson look outstanding. Second, many major environmental laws provide considerable discretion to the President in their enforcement. Third, a lot of Republican Senators are on board with a significant reduction in environmental regulation. Nonetheless, environmental organizations have started to get some footing on EPA rule-making, as outlined in missive #18. In addition to the well-known major battlers like the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club, there is an excellent, feisty, smaller organization focused almost entirely on the EPA which is led by former staff members. If you are already an environmental donor or have a hankering, the Environmental Integrity Project is a great place for you to head.
3) Defend Our National Monuments
	Since the passage of the Antiquities Act at Teddy Roosevelt’s urging in 1906, Presidents have been establishing National Monuments. Now under a Trump executive order, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke is reviewing whether to decommission or cut back 21 monuments that previous presidents have established. There is not an easy way into this issue. The President’s use of the Antiquities Act will be challenged, since it is not clear whether these powers exist in the form that he expects to use them. There will be a back and forth for some time, including sidebar discussions with individual Republican members of Congress whose districts house the monuments. However, there is one good thing to do right now. The clothing retailer Patagonia has played a key role among outdoor companies in trying to get Zinke to cut back his cutbacks. REI and other companies have also joined this effort.  Please take a minute to write an email to patagoniapress@patagonia.com to thank them for their efforts, which hopefully will grow.

So, it goes. The rabid tweets and made up stories about General Pershing and thank you to Vladimir Putin for expelling embassy staff are not aberrations. They are the essence of this President. His further downfall is that as much as he says otherwise, he cares what you think. His rallies every couple of weeks are nothing more than an effort to get him some love. When that love isn’t forthcoming, and when you and millions of others seek a different course, he will lash out.

This is the way it is going to be for some time. Given his unsteadiness, it may or may not be four years. However long it is, we will maintain our intensity. We will ground ourselves in a rich understanding of what is transpiring and what we can do about it, and we will demonstrate our love for our country and its promise.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#20: Here's The Best Thing to Say About This Mess

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It seems interminable, but Donald Trump has been President for barely more than a half year. With the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, he may not make it four years. But the odds are greater that he will. Sure, most Republicans in the House and Senate would prefer to have Mike Pence as President. However, if they participate in any kind of induced departure they will severely split their party for 2020 and beyond, much worse than the split they have at present.

The President’s performance so far has been poorer than many of us imagined it would be. Our country is being “led” by an international bully. He is scandalously ignorant on countless major issues. His tendency to deny he said what he said or meant what he meant is unequaled in the history of the American presidency. Here’s the best thing to say about this mess.

Trump’s current huge disapproval levels are associated with Democrats taking back 45 seats in the House in November of 2018. We need to get 24 to regain the majority. Yes, we are fully capable of pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory but right now the good news is that the intensity of the resistance and Trump’s performance have placed us in a strong position. It is hard to be relentless for 16 months, but that is what will be called for.

Republicans need 60 votes to pass a budget in the Senate. They don’t want to shut down the government for lack of a budget, since voters would be unenthused about such a tactic. So, they will need to compromise with Democratic Senators, which in turn means no real progress for Trump on his wall. During the rest of the summer and early fall, the action will shift to the need to pass an increase in the national debt ceiling. Stay tuned for a wild time.

Members of Congress have gone home and Donald Trump has headed for a 17 day stay at a New Jersey golf club he owns. The news may slow down a bit over this period, and it is time to take stock. What we find are glimmers that Trump’s own party will stand up to him now and again when it counts, that their disquiet is growing and that they no longer think that their ties to him on health care and tax policy are advantageous.

The push back by Republicans on Russia sanctions and on Robert Mueller is not insignificant, but it is also not sufficient. (See missive #18 on the nature of the sordid deal that keeps them from stepping in much more often.) Furthermore, few, if any, of their interventions would be taking place if it were not for the massive citizen resistance to Trump and his resultant low popularity among voters.

The Senate Republicans are still askew after the huge drama of John McCain asking for “regular order” (the normal functioning of the Senate under its rules) and voting against Mitch McConnell’s “skinny” health care bill. They are extremely unlikely to find another path to 50 votes anytime soon. The signal of a new direction came from Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota, who in the face of taunting tweets from Trump said, “Maybe lightning will strike… but I am not holding my breath.”

Senator Lamar Alexander (chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) has joined with the ranking Democrat on the Committee (Patty Murray of Washington) to announce public hearings in September on how to shore up the very health care exchanges and markets that Trump is deliberately destabilizing. There are similar bi-partisan discussions in the House. None of these things would have happened were it not for the intensive efforts of citizens across America. What better motivation could there be to redouble these efforts? 

During the Congressional break is a great time for us to attend to our broader efforts to renew our country. Here’s three things we can do:

1) Make Certain We are Allied With Key Organizers
	It is a good thing that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not the only force or even the primary force behind organizing us all to take back the House. Indivisible has been indispensable in spurring local activity and Swing Left, after an uneven start, has done its own good job of targeting winnable districts. Organizing for Action is now accelerating its activity.   There is enough work to go around. Organizing for Action (once called Obama for America) has excellent ties to Barack and Michelle Obama, proven organizing savvy, and good ties to potential Democratic candidates. They are another very good choice as we all figure out the best place to ally ourselves and apply our energies.  Now is not the time to wonder which Congressional race or races to dive into. Now is the time to decide which race to dive into. For those who live in a safe Democratic district and whose member of Congress is doing a good job, often a swing district is nearby and is already in play. Many local Indivisible groups have adopted races, and Indivisible, Swing Left and others are doing a good job of examining and identifying which races to target. Jump in now. Early money, and early organizing strength is like yeast.
2) Don’t Forget “Down Ballot” Races
	2010 was awful year in American politics. A number of state legislatures garnered Republican majorities and thus were empowered to manage redistricting processes. In some states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Texas, egregious forms of gerrymandering ensued. In a few instances, the approach has been addressed by the courts, who may ultimately develop new means of determining at what point a gerrymandered district has violated constitutional standards. In the meantime, we must get more oriented toward down ballot races for the State Legislature. These will ultimately determine who will be in the majority in state capitals after the 2020 elections. Additionally, state legislatures are playing a key role in pushing back against Trump’s assaults on health care an environment regulations. There is an excellent way to pick a key state legislative race and lend your financial or other support. The new organization Sister Districts will match you up with work to be done in specific key races.
3) Make Sure People are Registered
	In previous issue of this missive, we have emphasized the considerable ongoing voting efforts of Mi Familia. Recognizing that several states have increased the opportunity for online registration, Voto Latino is an important place to provide support, since they emphasize online approaches.

With the unfortunate last-minute announcement of James Comey, with the illegal involvement of the Russians and their possible collusion by Trump, with the errors in our own efforts, we lost by 70,000 votes spread over Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. What a horrible thing to have so many efforts on global alliances, climate change, health care, reproductive freedom and countless other progressive strategies turn to ash on a single day.

But it couldn’t be any clearer that we have already risen from the ashes and dusted ourselves off. The worst of American Republicanism, its shielding of people of privilege from the challenges of the world, its me-only obsession, is now out in the open. We know what we are fighting against, and it is already abundantly clear that we can win. So let’s win.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington