This is the next of a new series of missives on our unfinished work to restore the promise of our country and its government. Each will focus on a single element of the many opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Each will provide three steps we can all take to build upon our huge victories winning back the House in 2018 and the Presidency in 2020.
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Ron DeSantis got it partly right. Unfortunately for him and fortunately for us, the part he got wrong means he won’t be nominated.
He correctly said that Donald Trump has permanently estranged himself from countless independent voters (especially suburban women) and that Republicans who want to win should be bent on nominating someone who has upside potential with those voters. Presumably that would be someone who was not an election results-denying, classified document-disclosing, mirror-loving, untruth-telling soon to be- felon. Republicans are spooked by the upcoming charges against Trump to be filed by Jack Smith and Fani Willis. DeSantis’ original claim that he would do better with independents resonated.
It might have continued to resonate if DeSantis hadn’t been so eager to scorn pretty much everyone besides himself. He hasn’t met you, but he is certain he wouldn’t like you if he did. He is the ultimate grievance cultivator. Seemingly, he is proud of tackling little old ladies on the way to get their COVID vaccines. His list of wrongs is huge, and new wrongs are invented and detailed every day. As he campaigns in Iowa, it is clear to him that every one of us is intent on upending every part of the life of the insurance agent in Keokuk or the farmer in Ottumwa. The more the Trump-rejecting suburban independents learn about DeSantis, the less appeal he has.
That’s why there is another “lane” in the Republican primary, and it’s not the one dominated by Chris Christie, belatedly and understandably paying Donald Trump back for past humiliations. It’s the lane of candidates who a) are not estranged from Trump, b) are not election deniers, and b) can project a positive vision of themselves and their country, even at Republican campaign rallies. Dominating this lane are two politicians from the same state, Senator Tim Scott, and former Governor Nikki Haley.
Their relative likability is especially important because all of the Republican candidates are saddled with minority minority positions on choice, assault weapons and international security. Neither Haley nor Scott has traction yet, but it is still early, Meanwhile, two sitting Governors are casting themselves as the “in an emergency, break this glass” candidates. The first, Georgia’s Brian Kemp will be vetoed by Trump for failing to commit election fraud. The second, Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin, is out there seeking to keep his name in play. Don’t let him tell you he is not.
Weirdly, there are Governors waiting in the wings on the Democratic side too. It turns out that being a decent President with an outstanding legislative record does not keep your joints from getting stiff or otherwise exempt you from the inexorable process of aging. More than half of Democrats don’t want Joe Biden to run. This is because the risk is too great that he would suffer a catastrophic event during his campaign or early in his second term, or simply see his energy and/or his cognition deteriorate.
It is still possible that Biden will withdraw. If it happens by fall, it will not have wounded his party appreciably to watch Republican candidates attack each other all summer. Gavin Newsom of California, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania are all wannabees, and Wes Moore of Maryland is a future shining star. At this point, the party should go back to the Midwest and choose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer has a proven record of attracting blue collar voters, which will be helpful in many states, including the must-have states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Democrats who are hoping that Joe Biden won’t run are reading the existing Biden campaign efforts as evidence that he will run. The truth is, Joe Biden would be campaigning and articulating his effective record to this same extent if he were just trying to keep himself from being a lame duck. There is still time for party leaders to intervene and for Joe and Jill Biden to think about this some more. Of course, that window will close by the end of the year.
What we need to be attending to now is how to take full advantage of the pro-choice groundswell, the two next Trump indictments and the unabated Republican internal battles to put more states in play for the 2024 elections.
While we consider which states to strive to add to our column in the 2024 presidential elections, let’s remember where we need to hold onto to states that we narrowly won. These include Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In each of these states, Donald Trump got more than 47% of the vote.
States that Democrats could put back in play are difficult but intriguing.
- In North Carolina we just missed picking up a Senate seat with former State Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley as well as almost securing the electoral vote for Joe Biden. Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008 and we have lost narrowly ever since. The state’s demographics are changing to our advantage, as is the intense battle over choice, where Republican legislators have overridden Governor Roy Cooper’s veto of their restrictive law.
- In Ohio, we have suffered an impermanent shift in what was once a major swing state. What is providing new opportunity is the battle over choice. Ohioans for Reproductive Rights are certain to get a pro-choice initiative on the ballot in November. The Republican controlled State Legislature is trying to stack the deck in putting up an initiative in August to require the November vote pass with 60% rather than 50%. That sudden change of view of Republicans on protecting the sanctity of the initiative process is likely to fail.
- Florida is not nearly the Republican stronghold that DeSantis wants you to believe. He beat the waning Charlie Crist handily, but Joe Biden got 47.9% of the presidential vote. Republicans have since overplayed their hands in their bizarre whatever-DeSantis-proposes legislative agenda.
- Texas has promise. The renewed effort to beat Ted Cruz is attracting good candidates, political organizers, and money. Here demographics are also in Democrat’s favor. In the last twenty years, Texas’ population has increased by 8.3 million people, and 7.6 million of those are non-white.
With all that incentive to seize the day, let’s do these three things.
| 1) Target North Carolina with Mi Familia Vota |
 | In recent elections, Mi Familia Vota has played an enormous role in mobilizing Latino voters in such highly contested states as Arizona and Nevada, where readers of this missive extended them over $20,000 in extra support in 2022. It is very exciting news that they are now expanding their efforts to North Carolina, where there are over a million Latinos. Because we lost by only 1.34% in 2020, these are electoral votes that we can win by investing in more intensive organizing right now.
Mi Familia Vota can receive 501(c)(3) charitable donations for allowable educational purposes. At this point, instead they most need political donations so they can go to the heart of the matter. Utilizing their flagship #Basta program, they will kick off their new efforts in North Carolina to engage progressive Latino voters with a communication campaign targeting extremist state legislators, especially those who have sponsored anti-immigrant bills. They are emphasizing the Congressional Districts where we have the best chance to pick up a seat. There is no better political investment to get ready for 2024 than to boost Mi Familia Vota in North Carolina. In this missive, we pledge to immediately raise $15,000 to give Mi Familia Vota a strong and immediate boost, please click here to add your contribution. We have already secured the first $500 donation! |
2) Lose Cruz |
 | The Lose Cruz PAC to defeat Ted Cruz has already launched, aiming to take advantage of Cruz’ trip to Cancun during Texas’ epic storm, among other things. The advantage of giving to a PAC early is it allows for campaign advertising well in advance of when the Democratic Senatorial candidate is selected. Learn more about this PAC here. A strong candidate for Senator will also be helpful in our effort to win the Presidential electoral votes. |
3) Pitch in For Ohio |
 | It isn’t too late to write postcards to entreat voters to reject Ohio’s effort to increase from 50% to 60% the percentage of voters needed to approve an initiative. This effort is the worst sort of politics, since the Republican Party would be dead set against this plan were it not for the chance to restrict a woman’s right to choose. Get your postcard list from the Blue Wave Postcard Movement, which has sent over 5 million personalized postcards since its inception. |
If you are taking the summer off from America’s political challenges, please reconsider the consequences.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
