Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.
Infamously, Donald Trump said in 2016 that he could “shoot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue” and not lose his supporters.
On Thursday, he did it, though he switched the scene of the crime. He increased the virus death rate of church, synagogue, and mosque-goers by maintaining that such places of assembly are “essential services” which should be opened by Memorial Day weekend. He threatened Governors who have correctly understood that places of assembly of large groups of people are paramount venues for the spread of the virus.
In an act of unsurpassed cynicism, he has steered people toward disease and death in order to seek political favor. It does not excuse him for a single second that he does not know which of them will draw their last breath, or how many, or even that some welcome his sentiments. He knows that the virus can and will be transmitted through such gatherings. His 5th Avenue is now places of worship across America.
As Sunday’s New York Times demonstrates heartbreakingly, the virus has ravaged America. It is astonishing that the President of the United States would exacerbate a pandemic. But, from all that we have seen since November 2016, it isn’t surprising.
We have taken the measure of the man, again and again. We’re not going to be discovering hidden virtues. That a huge proportion of likely voters have made up their mind convinces commentators that this will be a turnout election, not a persuasion election. In his excellent analysis in the American Prospect, Democratic strategist Robert Creaner comes down on the side of turnout as the most consequential, but not until he underscores the value of each approach.
These strategies matter a lot, now that we have demonstrated that our own nation can fall into a tailspin over 80,000 votes in three states. Getting it right demands that we take both the persuasion and turnout approaches, while we obsess over one fact--- that the majority of Americans who are uncertain about voting will vote with us if they vote at all. As we do our campaign work, this is the single most important characteristic of the 2020 election--- Trump does not have a significant pool of prospects he can add to his core voters, and Biden does. Turnout is extraordinarily important, but persuasion is still hugely important. They are not mutually exclusive.
To underscore the critical nature of persuasion, 3.6% of Obama voters in 2012 switched to Trump in 2016. 1.9% of Romney voters switched to Hillary Clinton, so 5.5% of voters declared their independence. Obviously, there is enough persuading going on that we could win an election just by reminding voters daily about Trump’s malfeasant non-management of the response to the pandemic. Importantly, persuasion of independents turned in our direction in 2018, playing a big factor in winning back the House of Representatives.
Even with the unbelievable switch of 3.6% of Obama’s vote in 2012 to Trump, we could still have won the election handily. Another 4.3% of those voting for Obama in 2012 did not vote at all in 2016. Democrat turnout was down considerably in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia and thus the “firewall” was breached.
Our turnout has turned up. In the off-year elections of 2018, our turnouts were huge. They were 40% greater than the regular off-year turnout for those aged 18-29. The Asian-American and Latino turnouts were the highest off-year participation ever.
It’s comforting on both the persuasion and turnout side that we just have to keep on doing what we have shown we can do since November of 2016. Of course, we aren’t in the mood to leave anything to chance. For most of us, that means emphasis on the turnout side, as we do postcard projects, calls, and (virus permitting) trips to battleground states to provide campaign assistance to local groups and candidates. Our primary participation on the persuasion side is to donate directly to Biden and other candidates, to help them get their message out.
Our emphasis on winning largely through increasing turnout has given Trump a principal goal in life beyond a new round of misogynistic, jingoistic, racist tweets- voter suppression. As anti-Democracy as it is, at least Trump has settled on a single, actual fact-- the lower the turnout, the better his chances. As he and other Republican leaders seek to change the law or abuse the law to stifle turnout, we have a secret weapon we can deploy--- Donald Trump! His constant attention to what sort of untruth or insult will motivate his “base” is itself the number one motivator of Democrat-leaning voters. Get yourself out there in the public, Donald Trump. Do not be shy.
Beyond getting Trump out and about, our strategies are strong as are the organizations that boost them. State by state, we battle Republican efforts to purge as many voters from the rolls as they can, sometimes for the most minor of address defects. In some states, Republicans have limited the number of polling places, or sought to establish all new identification standards. Since the pandemic started, the biggest of all battles has been over mail-in ballots. Predictably, Trump (now a Florida voter) has both mailed in his ballot and asserted without the benefit of evidence that such ballots are a major source of voting fraud.
The truth is that Republican and Democratic Secretaries of State and other election officials have been administering vote-by-mail systems without incident for years. In 5 states (including Utah) vote by mail is the preferred option. In another 29, voters can get an absentee ballot simply by requesting one. Already, activists are getting absentee voting applications in the hands of potential voters. There has been some progress in 11 of the 16 other states, as these states consider the impact of the virus.
Now is the time for each of us to up our effort on turnout. We can be sure we are protected in the courtroom by such outstanding efforts such as the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU and the American Civil Liberties Union. As is customary with this missive, we can emphasize three things:
| 1) Help Advance Absentee Voting In Texas | |
 | Happily, there are scores of local organizations working on voter registration and turnout. They are coupled with high profile national efforts, which will drive media attention, thus boosting local activity. Michelle Obama’s national When We All Vote is the perfect national partner. They are ready to take your pledge to fight for fair elections and boost ballots by mail. They have all the informational resources you need and have identified a number of steps you can take today. |
2) Enforce the Florida Constitution | |
 | In a stunning vote in 2018, 65% of Florida voters passed a constitutional amendment restoring the voting rights of felons once they have served their sentence and completed their probation. Ever since, the state’s Republican leadership has been trying to keep this civic rebuilding project from happening. They passed a law limiting the voting restoration to felons who have paid all fines and penalties, even though there is no state system for tracking what, if any, penalties pertain. Now, a federal district court has ruled the law violates the constitutional amendment. Florida activist groups are back to helping these former felons to register. You can do calling or texting by signing up with the very good Florida activist organization We Got the Vote. |
3) Boost Latino Turnout Nationwide | |
 | Julian Castro has joined forces with Voto Latino, a national organization that aims to register one million new Latino voters between now and November. Among the swing states where the Latino vote will prove critical are Texas, Colorado, Florida and Arizona. This is as good an investment as you can make, |
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
