#32: What Wonders Will Emerge on November 6

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Long before Donald Trump came into our world via escalator, political compromise was referred to by its practitioners as an “art”. Two or more sides would recognize and resolve an impasse. Each would give up something, and get something. Neither would be entirely comfortable with the resolution, and both would be able to claim that they achieved an outcome that prior to the compromise seemed highly unlikely.

This still happens in our nation’s capital, every week and on issues large and small. And for the most part, it should happen. However, the differences between what transpired in the recent budget discussions and what is commonplace when compromises are sought are even more striking:

• When the price of resolution includes avoiding a governmental shutdown the debate will no longer be limited to the issues that were initially under review, which were DACA and border security. Instead the debate reached a wider, more complicating sphere related to the broader infliction of pain on the government and country as the consequence of failing to act on DACA. It was not unwise for Senator Schumer and the Senate Democrats to initially refuse to supply the votes necessary to keep the government open, because they traded their inevitable wounds for a clearer path to the conceivable creation of a future for Dreamers. Once the Republicans had already acceded to the six-year extension of the Children’s Health Insurance Program within the budget resolution, the high pain/gain ratio for Democrats of shutting down the government even temporarily was predictable. The politics were messy and a bit disappointing, but it was worth it. There will be no ongoing damage, and tactical lessons have been learned.

• In typical negotiations that lead to political compromise, everyone comes into the room with a similar body of knowledge. On the issues before them, Democratic and Republican Senators had varying interpretations on the current effectiveness of border security, or different value judgements on injustices faced by the Dreamers. But, each and every one of them had a deeper understanding of these matters than did Donald Trump. When it looked for a moment like Trump would agree with Republican Lindsay Graham and Democrat Dick Durbin on a “clean” DACA bill, aide Steven Miller marshalled the Fox forces. Because Trump can veto bills, Mitch McConnell has to treat his views as consequential. The combination of Trump not being any kind of a learner and Fox having his ear is very difficult to deal with. With Trump, any deal will become in-artful.

So, none of these upcoming negotiations will easily fit the pattern that Senators had utilized before the present political affliction of the past year. Throughout 2018, Trump and McConnell are going to need 60 votes in the Senate. All year long they will have to come to the table with 51 or fewer votes, and with Chuck Schumer sitting there demanding things. It behooves all of us who see ourselves as a part of the resistance to know which of these circumstances will endanger us and which will advantage us, and how to make more of the latter and less of the former.

The first question is how badly does each side want its objective in a sought compromise? Republicans know how fervently most Democrats want to do the right thing for the Dreamers, while many Republicans would be comfortable with no DACA at all. That’s why what once seemed unthinkable may well come to pass, where Democrats will trade Dreamer protection for the votes Trump needs to get a major section of the wall funded. (Democrats also know that they will have much improved ability to block wall spending after they take back the House in November. Like Rome, walls aren’t built in a day.) Similarly, if the Republicans had needed 60 votes for the bad tax bill in the Senate, Schumer would have been able to extract major concessions, because he would have been fine if discussions fell apart and there was no bill at all.

The second question is does the objective have to be passed, or just blocked? If Trump ever proposes an infrastructure bill, it will require McConnell and him to make major concessions with Schumer and Senate Democrats, because he would need all new legislation, and 60 votes to cut off debate. There is no national groundswell convincing Schumer that he would be in peril if he disagrees with Trump’s approach.

The third question is to what extent is there common ground between the parties? The requirement that 60 votes are necessary in the Senate to cut off debate changes the role of Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and Jeff Flake and Lindsay Graham from providing a key necessary NO vote (which they did rarely to be sure). Now to be successful they must bring Republicans into a “moderate” coalition, a role which they will find much more enjoyable. This will also enhance the role of the more centrist Democratic Senators, which was described in missive #31.

Here are three things we can do to make sure the resistance isn’t compromised by compromises in Congress:

1) Promote the Promise of the Common-Sense Coalition
	Any time a group of Senators from both parties labels itself a Common-Sense Coalition, it’s time to be wary. The danger of any centrist coalition is that it can blunt necessary advocacy and substitute half a loaf when a loaf is needed. But in 2018 the emergence of this coalition will prove more valuable to Democrats than Republicans. That’s because the Democrats are in the minority, and thus are that much more in need in terms of coalition building. Three weeks from now we will be enveloped in a DACA debate, with all of the complications of the budget resolution set aside. For at least a day, attention will be paid to the substance --- who would be deported if DACA doesn’t survive in a meaningful form; the contributions they make to America; and the injustices that will be visited upon them. By participating in the recent meetings of the Common-Sense coalition, certain Republican Senators have revealed themselves as possible supporters of a DACA bill. They need a note from you thanking them for working across the aisle and looking for solutions. Give them some positive re-enforcement, even though the real work is yet to be done. Choose any or all of these three, who are definitely not used to getting such notes: Mike Rounds of South Dakota Cory Gardner of Colorado Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
2) Delay the Usual Internecine Democratic Warfare
	There always will be and always should be a place within the Democratic Party for Democrats to battle Democrats. Fighting passionately over what you stand for is how you end up standing for something. So, the disappointment of some that Schumer and colleagues agreed to end the shutdown could easily end up within the normal bounds of discourse. However, let’s get the situation clear in our minds. Schumer got something that was meaningful, and he was not in a position that DACA gains were going to emerge in full bloom with each successive day of a shutdown. Further, the moderate Democrats who were eager to have the shutdown be over all stood tall by Schumer’s side through all of the Affordable Care Act votes and all of the votes on tax “reform”. Under considerable pressure and from states who strongly supported Trump over Clinton, they will continue to be strong members of the Democratic caucus. We can all be monitors of this internal debate, to make certain that our resistance has both standards and a big tent. Or we can seek to eviscerate our own. Stephanie Taylor of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wrote: "Today's cave is also a wake up call for the Democratic Party. Today's cave was led by weak-kneed, right-of-center Democrats who buckled as soon as the fight was on. Senator Schumer voted with Republicans and called this a good path forward. This is exactly why voters don't know what Democrats stand for. Weak Democrats muddy the party brand -- and today, they made it harder to inspire voters and win elections everywhere in 2018." Write Stephanie Taylor at info@boldprogressives.org and tell her what she already knows --- Schumer is not a “weak kneed right of center Democrat”. Schumer ultimately told Joe Manchin and Claire McCaskill that he didn’t need them in the effort to withhold 40 votes, which helped them in their home states where they are seeking re-election in November. He ultimately decided he did not have an immediate path to DACA victory. That’s what you want a Democratic caucus chair to do.
3) Help the Coalition for the American Dream and United We Dream Get Momentum
	Even though battle lines are now well drawn, it’s not too late to get a little bit more momentum behind the forces that are working to protect Dreamers. One of the communities of interest that has been surprisingly helpful (within their own self-interest) is America’s corporate, labor and trade association leaders. Figure out a way to get attention for their efforts. Write to a corporate, labor or trade association leader you know and ask them to join the growing ranks. Send their letter to Congress to your own member of Congress with an attached note. Or, get behind the spirited, intensive lobbying effort of the largest group of immigrant youth in the country. Click to donate here.

Because of the need for the bills to get 60 votes in the Senate, we’re heading toward a year where compromises will always be at the table. Since Donald Trump always has Fox TV tuned in and since he has almost no knowledge of policy issues, he will never be a presidential negotiator even at the lower end, represented by the days of James Buchanan and Warren G. Harding. That will make things a bit more tumultuous. We will have to expect our elected officials to pick their way through carefully, and we will have to get beyond the declared wisdom of one paragraph posts.

Through it all, with determination and confidence and energy and hope, we are working toward the wonders that can emerge on November 6, 2018.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#31: No Forgetting the Strength and Grace of Barrack Obama

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

To the extent that people in political mass movements are capable of collective wisdom, now would be a very good time to achieve some. As fascinating as is Fire and Fury, Michael Wulff's exposé of a petulant, distracted, uninformed, dishonorable president, we can't permit ourselves to dwell at the scene of that crime.

Steve Bannon's comments regarding treason, Trump Jr. and Manafort are delicious, of course. But, collusion in inviting the Russians into the presidential election, and/or obstruction of justice are matters before Robert Mueller, and thus are already in good hands. There aren't a lot of countries where the government can investigate a sitting president, but we are definitely one of them, as Richard Nixon was dismayed to learn.

Beyond being very concerned about Mueller, and he is, Trump is worried about the permanent de-legitimization of his presidency. He would, and has, lied regularly to try to avoid this outcome. It is this fear of Trump's that has put Jeff Sessions on the Tom Price-like slippery slope, even though Jeff Sessions was the first Senator to endorse Trump's candidacy, and for a long time the only one.

It also why Trump has recruited a motley collection of House Republicans who have forgotten they always loved the FBI and are now seeking to eviscerate the FBI. Most of all, it is why Steve Bannon must be made an outcast, even as he retracts and apologizes. If Donald Trump could get away with it, he would have Sean Hannity interview him and then insist that he never met Steve Bannon, except once in a large meeting of junior staff and interns.

In the midst of it all, we must keep our focus. Doing 2018 the right way (both in terms of the legislative process and the 2018 elections) will give us the opportunity to begin to reverse in 2019 what happened in 2017. As we tackle 2018 in our massive and growing movement, we must continue to adjust our efforts to take advantage of new conditions.

Paramount among these new conditions is that 60 is the new 50. Mitch McConnell is out of the actions that require only 50 votes in the Senate due to those actions being advanced under the budget reconciliation process. Getting to 60 will push him back to the center. That's why he and his colleagues wanted the awful tax bill so badly. It was their last night at the saloon before reporting for active duty.

Because of their influence on committees and their willingness to talk to Democrats, Susan Collins, Bob Corker, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake will still be important. However, we will need a new tact - we will want to quickly improve our communication with selected Democratic Senators from states Trump won by a wide margin and who are up for re-election in 2018. There are several who were elected to their six-year terms in 2012, when Barack Obama was re-elected. These include Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Now that Doug Jones has been seated, we are at 49. Getting to 51 (requiring the re-election of these Senators) could generate innumerable rewards, including improved defense against future Trump Supreme Court nominees.

The trick will be to find an approach to the budget, DACA (Deferral of Childhood Arrivals), infrastructure investment and other legislative challenges that keep these vulnerable Senators comfortably within their own party.

This is more possible because fashioning a workable Democratic caucus position while attending to needs of individual Senators is Minority Leader Charles Schumer's specialty. And it's even more possible than that because Trump’s growing unpopularity has reached these states, making it far easier for these Senators to oppose him.

The resistance does not need to demand that every Democratic Senator think alike. It has never been so. Depending on the issue, the position and politics of centrist Democrats must be honored and even celebrated. It's a party with progressive goals but a big tent.

So, by all means let’s participate in compromises to keep the government going and people served. But remember always the standards --- no participation in international bullying, no blessing of planet poisoning executive orders, no pretending that Trump has ended airplane fatalities, no thinking for even a second that a wall is related to our security, no disregard of international institutions, no conflating growth in the stock market with giving a boost to those in need, no throwing people off their health care insurance, no denigrating the media, no comforting the comfortable while afflicting the afflicted, and no forgetting the strength and grace of Barrack Obama.

With those standards in mind here are three things we can do to help our bruised nation get off to a strong start in 2018.

1) Get Back the Senate Majority
	For most of this past year, the resistance to Donald Trump has concentrated on taking back the House of Representatives in 2018. The work of Indivisible and Swing Left has preceded and surpassed the work of the Democratic Party on this front, although the parties efforts have increased to date. With Doug Jones' victory in Alabama, the Senate is still a longer shot, but it is within reach. The formula would be to hold onto the vulnerable Democratic seats enumerated above, pick up the Republican seats held by Dean Heller of Nevada and the retiring apostate Jeff Flake of Arizona, and work for an upset with good candidates in such states as Tennessee and Texas, where a win by Representative Beto O'Rourke over Senator Ted Cruz would be delicious. It's time for activists to get to know a vulnerable Democratic Senator who is working hard and who is up for re-election in a state where every other major elected official is a Republican. Why not start with Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota? She is a stolid Democrat, served two terms as attorney general, and eschewed running for Governor to run again for the Senate. Whether or not you are ready to make a small contribution to her campaign, now is an excellent time to sign up to start learning about her.
2) Standing with Patagonia to Protect Public Lands
	It's time to notice that one company has put themselves forward to oppose the Trump/Zinke destruction of public lands. As previously discussed in Missive #29 the action cutting Bear's Ears National Monument by over 2 million acres is only the beginning of the administration's efforts to put conservation last.  The outdoor gear company Patagonia has objected, brought other companies and conservation organizations to their side, and taken a leadership role in this effort. They have paid for some very effective television ads which have made interior secretary Ryan Zinke very angry. Click here to join and participate in their campaign to preserve public lands.
3) Get to Work Fighting Gerrymandering
	As we know, long before votes are cast in an election, initial critical steps are taken. Progressives battle against state legislative proposals that make registering to vote more difficult or otherwise seek to suppress voting. Activists register potential voters, seek to increase the intensity of their interest, and set up systems to convince people to vote and get them to the polls. For years, looming over all of these efforts has been the extra level of difficulty in winning gerrymandered districts, whose proponents use demographic analysis to create disproportionate advantage of one party over another, over and above what would be the likely or common political distribution within that geographical area. This turns swing districts (in which political choice is magnified) into safe districts (in which only one viewpoint is entertained). Both parties have been guilty of gerrymandering in the past. The federal courts have taken notice, and there have been important legal efforts to stop the most egregious practices, especially those that constitute racial discrimination. Every ten years, the completion of the census puts state legislatures into the position of needing to redraw the boundaries of state legislative and congressional districts to adjust to population shifts. In the fall of 2010, Republicans pulled off huge gains in state legislative races. Subsequently, they used their legislative majorities in several states (notably in Wisconsin and Virginia) to creatively re-draw district lines to gain significantly more seats than their overall vote total would have predicted. For instance, North Carolina has an almost even number of Democratic voters, but its Congressional delegation has 12 Republicans and 3 Democrats. Eric Holder, the Attorney General under Barrack Obama, has persuaded Democrats to take on this issue with all new energy and a fresh understanding about how the worst excesses of gerrymandering can be countered. His National Democratic Redistricting Committee is behind strategies to make certain Democrats don't make the same mistakes in 2020 as they did in 2010.

There's nothing wrong with admitting to ourselves that political America has become wearying. The daily Trumpian approach to life, to our nation, and to the world is soul-sapping. As an antidote, you could look at the newspaper (remember those?) and see the evidence every single day that our resistance is growing. And there's some other evidence that can restore the soul as well. Nicholas Kristof says 2017 was the best year in human history. Last year, over 300 million people in this world got their first access to electricity and to clean water, and 250 million boosted themselves or were lifted from the worst levels of poverty.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington