This is the next of a new series of missives on our unfinished work to restore the promise of our country and its government. Each will focus on a single element of the many opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Each will provide three steps we can all take to build upon our huge victories winning back the House in 2018 and the Presidency in 2020.
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Donald Trump is finished, don’t you think? He is tired, focused only on his increasingly bizarre lies about election fraud, and bored with the actual challenges undertaken by government. He requires a higher level of sycophantic behavior from his staff than ever before, which is setting the bar very high. He actively socializes only with those who will kiss his ring. He is over-leveraged, facing a billion dollars of cash calls to protect his properties. A Manhattan grand jury has been empaneled and could return an indictment for tax fraud. He is done, no?
No, he is not, at least not necessarily. Overconfidence is our monstrous nemesis. Ages ago, we underestimated Trump when he came down the elevator and after the Access Hollywood tapes. Ever since, we have been trying to fathom how voters could support him, even though all this time he has had his own television network in FOX. But since 74 million voters did just last year, we are obligated to take him seriously.
As Salon says, Trump is not delusional. He is a shameless, manipulative, exploitative opportunist. And those are his good points! But he has been every one of those things for quite a while, perhaps since kindergarten. We must come to the painful recognition that under certain circumstances, this human (or a dedicated apostle) could win the Presidency in 2024. Through his efforts, we could lose the Senate and House in 2022.
The signs that this absolutely will not happen are many.
Joe Biden is the President for times like these. His empathy is genuine and comforting. He has been the man with the plan since his election. He knew he had to make his mark in his first 100 days, and his American Rescue Plan did exactly that. The boldness of his proposals stunted the predicted battles between progressives and liberals before they emerged. His approval rating is more than 10% better than any Trump had in his four years. The reasons why Republican leaders rarely attack him directly is because voters like Biden as a human being.
In a matter of months Biden will be fairly credited with ending the pandemic. He inherited and fixed a nonfunctional vaccination program which did not come close to meeting its pledge of 20 million administered vaccines by the end of 2020. It will be close, but Biden will meet his goal of 70% of adult Americans being vaccinated by July 4. Ironically, the man who was President when vaccine development was accelerated is so busy mocking Fauci and masks that he has taken himself out of the line to receive some credit.
Perhaps most importantly, Trump and his crowd have almost nowhere to go to find more voters, which is why they work so hard on voter deception and voter suppression. Women have fled Trump by the millions not just because of what he stands for but because of the person he is. Because he will remain that person, there will be no changing their minds. Much was made of Cuban-Americans in Miami voting for Trump, but Latino voters supplied the margin of victory for Biden in Arizona and New Mexico and across the country two-thirds voted for Biden and Harris. Besides, what is it that the Republican Party stands for nowadays, besides not taxing the richest Americans and not investigating the attack on the Capitol?
Well, then, where is our vulnerability in 2022 and 2024, beyond the fact that millions of activists must re-engage?
First, our 2020 victory margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were modest. Even with Joe Biden being seen as the friend of the working man and woman, Trump still has some traction among workers in the manufacturing sector. Of course, much of this is based upon falsehoods, since faux-populist Trump’s tax bill ignored these workers in favor or their employers. Both the American Rescue Plan and what will end up in a bi-partisan infrastructure bill are intended to reach out to these voters, who had asked what the Democratic agenda could do for them, and who thus have received a robust answer. However, more than a few manufacturing workers wonder which Democrats beyond Biden are thinking about their place in the economy.
Second, voter suppression threatens our victories in Georgia and Arizona. As much as Trump is trying to litigate past outcomes in these states, his party is more focused on trying to influence future outcomes. Their impact on the total vote is small relative to the massive voting rights abuses of the past, including literacy tests and poll taxes. However, the intent of these laws is at the highest level of malevolence--- trying to sway an election by keeping minorities from casting their votes.
Third, we still participate in a language of exclusion. An egregious recent public discourse is the narrative fed by the media that most everyone in the country is deciding whether to return to their office or commute from home. More than half of American workers did not occupy an office in the first place. Those who do not have the option to work from home might be wondering whether the rest of us have noticed them building houses, making things, fixing the plumbing, repairing the car, preparing meals, stocking the grocery shelves, providing care for or educating our children, and countless other jobs.
The anti-Trump movement that took back the House, the Senate and Presidency remains unfinished. Its present sleepiness and overconfidence are unacceptable. It is time for activists to get off the couch to turn back to what we know how to do. Let’s do these three things:
| 1) Become a Cockeyed Activist | |
 | Many of us are are out there, feeling positive about the future but still wary and unwilling to let up on our collective efforts of the past four years. In addition to the several Zoom presentations this missive has sponsored, we are instituting a monthly hour-long session for such active activists. Each will include new insights on what is transpiring, and recommendations from all participants on paths to take, organizations we must boost, and ways to be our most effective. We will do all of this on the last Sunday of each month at 7 pm Pacific time --- June 27, July 25, August 22. Send an email to dsh347@gmail.com if you plan to participate as often as you can. |
2) Take Back This Senate Seat | |
 | The off-year elections are not normally the time in which the party of the President expands its hold, but the fact that the Senate is tied 50-50 makes it an anomalous year. Offering more hope is the certainty that Republican Senators are retiring in Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and the likelihood that they will retire in Iowa and Wisconsin. These are all winnable states, and all have excellent Democratic candidates who are emerging. One such candidate will play a special role in making sure the needs of workers in manufacturing companies are articulated and advanced. This is Tim Ryan of Ohio, now a House member, whose candidacy will resonate far beyond his home state. On the House floor, Ryan told Republicans to “stop talking about Dr. Seuss” and start focusing on helping working men and women. Boost him, please. |
3) Do Not Forget This November | |
 | The best way to gain momentum for 2022 is to remember that our huge successes in Virginia in 2019 need to be replicated this November, just five months from now. To make certain we will maintain our majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly, Swing Left is wisely and helpfully targeting ten races we can support. 100% of our donations go to these candidates. |
Given that participating in the American political process can sap one’s energy, there is nothing wrong with taking a break once in a while. But let’s not overdo it and quit while we are ahead. Let’s all of us get back to work.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
