This is the next of a new series of missives on our unfinished work to restore the promise of our country and its government. Each will focus on a single element of the many opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Each will provide three steps we can all take to build upon our huge victories winning back the House in 2018 and the Presidency in 2020.
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The idea that California regularly leads the nation down inventive or progressive new paths is a shibboleth. California has certainly been a leader in clean air regulation, but Minnesota has been ahead on fighting poverty. It was Washington’s cities that started things going on the $15 an hour minimum wage. Fighting the pandemic, both Washington’s Jay Inslee and Ohio’s Mike DeWine have stood out through firmness and consistency more than has California’s Gavin Newsom.
However, California just distinguished itself. It became the first to significantly test and improve the formula for beating the forces of Donald Trump in the fall of 2022.
This counts for a lot. Rarely are mid-term elections positive for the party that is in power. At this point. the “generic” Congressional ballot presently shows only a 2% lead for Democrats, putting Nancy Pelosi’s majority in peril. Even though there are several Republican Senatorial retirements and promising races redound, there is no comfort to be had with the elections just over a year ahead. Thus, any strategies that can be perfected today will bode well for keeping both the Senate and the House behind Joe Biden where they belong.
Political analysts think they have found something in the California recall that will provide a blueprint for Democratic campaigning in the next year. The recall race looked much closer six weeks before election day. In the final weeks, leading Republican candidate Larry Elder changed his mind after initially declaring that Joe Biden won the presidential election “fairly and squarely”. Beset by Trump and Trump’s supporters, he altered his course. He started talking about “shenanigans” and absent evidence of fraud refused to say whether he would accept the election’s outcome. It is widely believed that his Trump style election denialism cost him dearly in the polls. The “no on recall” ended up winning by nearly three million votes.
The Republican former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, who trailed Elder, had it right when he said that the unsubstantiated claims of election fraud depressed the Republican vote. Meanwhile the Democrats increased their turnout by effortlessly tying Elder to Trump’s now endless fraud claims. Since those claims became dominant only during and after the fall of 2020, their electoral impact is only now being tested. The California recall provides early and positive news that “stop the steal” is old news that appeals only to Trump’s core supporters, and not even all of them.
More than ever, and even among independent voters, Trump turns out voters who are against him more than he does those who are for him. In part, that is because he is incapable of taking himself out of the story, so it would be impossible for aides to convince him to step back if he is hurting a candidate. Plus, his cries that even the clearest election result is “rigged” makes Republican voters think their vote is worthless, so they are less likely to cast it.
As important, the Newsom forces made Elder the MAGA candidate on vaccine denialism and COVID non-management. Unluckily for the Trump backed candidate, the majority of independent voters favor vaccine mandates and related government efforts to defeat the pandemic. It wasn’t difficult for Newsom to make Larry Elder Trump’s political brother, since Trump insisted on it. And Trump will keep on making himself the issue across the country in 2022.
In California, COVID management became the second part of the “Name the villain, describe the stakes” Democratic strategy. If someone can be accurately labeled the MAGA candidate, it follows that they will be apologists for anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers. These MAGA candidates will be running against candidates who are treating the pandemic like the public health emergency that the public recognizes. For the majority of the besieged populace, these stakes are huge. They want the pandemic to come to an end. Trump long ago ceded the ground of recognizing the pandemic’s ravages and deploying government to conquer it. Through all of challenges of the Delta variant, Biden has seized this ground.
“Name the villain, describe the stakes” will not be a winning strategy in every Congressional district. However, the California approach suggests that the number of districts in which it will be a winner is growing. Now more than ever, the strategies that Trump uses to gain the allegiance of his core supporters are anathema to the very independents that Republican candidates need. He is unlikely to run for President in 2024, but we should want his lying, felonious, malevolent insurrectionist self around for November 2022.
Let’s continue to confront him by focusing on the seditionists he loves most of all, and otherwise joining the battle he has framed:
| 1) Virginia Hinges on Battling for the Right to Choose | |
 | Virginia is one of two states (the other is New Jersey) that have gubernatorial elections this fall. Since Governor Ralph Northam is term limited, former Governor Terry McAuliffe is the Democratic Candidate. He is in a close race with businessperson Glenn Youngkin, endorsed by Trump. Democrats are using the widespread oppositition to the Texas abortion law (which allows neighbors to file civil suits against women getting an abortion) to increase the votes of independent suburban women. Candidate Youngkin was caught on tape saying that he was waiting to get elected to “go on the offense” against the right to choose. Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia is fielding campaign teams in the DC suburbs to increase the turnout of independent voters. This is the right time to make an investment. |
2) Yes, the Lincoln Project is Still Telling the Truth About Trump | |
 | To some, the Lincoln Project has been a bit annoying, because they are staffed by former Republican operatives who cannot abide Trump or his brand, even though some of them helped pave the way for his arrival. However, this former inside position makes their political ads even more inventive and creative and relentless. You can share these ads with every list you have and everyone you know and help expand the Lincoln Project’s impact. Have a look at the Lincoln Project's site. Here is an example of a Lincoln video that could benefit from your distributional assistance. |
3) Report COVID Misinformation Every Day | |
 | On the human side, we can and must save lives. Every day, lies about the vaccine and even about masking prevent people from protecting themselves against severe illness or death. On the political side, we cannot maintain our majorities in the House and Senate unless we defeat the virus. Reporting misinformation should be our daily duty. Stronger.org provides this guide to reporting false information you receive through Twitter, Instagram or Facebook. Do not count upon this social media companies to do the right thing on their own. They won’t. |
You have already made a pledge to yourself to not take November 2022 for granted. You have promised yourself to start increasing your activity week to week. It is time to keep the promise.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
