This is the next of a new series of missives on our unfinished work to restore the promise of our country and its government. Each will focus on a single element of the many opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. Each will provide three steps we can all take to build upon our huge victories winning back the House in 2018 and the Presidency in 2020.
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As it turns out, the munchkins in the Wizard of Oz were correct. Kansas was at the center of the movie, and it certainly is now. The election results in their reproductive rights referendum were stunning. It would be hard to recall a boost to Democrats three months before an election that was as unanticipated and consequential.
Prior to the referendum, pundits were saying that the pro-choice movement would celebrate if they got 46% of the vote. They got 58%, due in part to a huge turnout. Months after it was hard to say what the Dobbs decision would kindle in November; it isn’t hard to say at all. America is going to fight back for choice. Consider these tiers:
The first tier, which Kansas exemplified, is a state which has the right to choose on the ballot, unimpeded by the Legislature. The New York Times analysis says given that opportunity, proponents of choice would win in 42 states. This fall Colorado has such an initiative. Among other things the choice-related turnout will bolster Democratic Senator Michael Bennet’s re-election.
The critical second tier is states where we were already bent on flipping legislative control in one or both houses, and where the upcoming legislative session is already scheduled to debate what if any level of choice they provide. This very juicy list includes Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. The Kansas vote signals a significant increase in the number of competitive state legislative races, and an all-new motivation to get to the polls, especially for the younger voters whose participation normally falls off during the mid-term.
The third tier is promising as well. These states are battlegrounds over the right to choose where the Governor will or will not rein in Republican legislatures bent upon the worst possible outcomes, even precluding a woman’s choice in cases of rape or incest. We must re-elect Democratic Governors in Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas and Pennsylvania and elect Democratic Governors in Georgia and Arizona.
For all of us who are obsessed about the future of the country, this is an unprecedented opportunity. Since it would take 60 votes in the Senate, Congress is not going to pass a law codifying the protections of Roe v Wade. Even so, the above states where the debate over choice will be especially intense have everything to do with us expanding our majority in the Senate and the longer shot of maintaining our majority in the House. Kansas can be our jumping off point.
Given the activity in the above states, the Kansas outcome shows we can protect Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, and Marc Kelly in Arizona. It will help John Fetterman win the Senate seat in Pennsylvania and make it more likely that Mandela Barnes will beat the startlingly acidic Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. And that’s just the minimum, with Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, Tim Ryan in Ohio, and Val Demings in Florida all expecting to get a boost.
The Republican response to all of this has been bewildering. The people in Kansas were misled and bedeviled! In the face of Clarence Thomas’ threats in the Dobbs decision, we would like to protect contraception and gay marriage, but we just can’t! Also, we are going to make it a point to vote against giving assistance to veterans who got cancer from burn pits! Sure, we support this bill, but we need to show that we are mad, at least for a week! Don’t you see we are making a point!
Of course, they were angry because of inside baseball. Mitch McConnell had said Republicans wouldn’t pass the bipartisan bill they helped write to strengthen the semiconductor industry if Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer got America to invest in fighting climate change. Then they thought Manchin and Schumer were estranged, so Republicans helped pass the CHIPS and Science bill. Right after that, Manchin and Schumer reconciled and cut a mammoth climate change-fighting, drug price-reducing, corporate tax-increasing deal. Mitch McConnell thinks the Manchin/Schumer estrangement was a ruse. Accordingly, he was more dour than usual, which is a difficult standard to meet.
For Democrats, the pieces are fitting together. As is his practice, Donald Trump has weakened the field of Republican candidates. And there are signs that inflation is coming under a modicum of control. Meanwhile, as David Axelrod pointed out, Joe Biden may have compiled the most impressive legislative record of any president since FDR. Thanks to Robert Hubbell, here’s the evidence:
- 03/11/2021 American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, a sweeping $1.9 trillion relief to address the continued impact of COVID-19 on the economy, public health, state and local governments, individuals, and businesses.
- 11/15/2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, $1.2 trillion investment in “hard infrastructure” including roads and bridges.
- 03/29/2022 Emmett Till Antilynching Act, 120 years after an anti-lynching bill was first introduced and after failing on nearly 200 prior occasions, Congress passed a bill designating lynching as a hate crime.
- 06/25/22 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, extended background checks for gun purchasers under 21, funding for state red flag laws and other crisis intervention programs, and partial closure of the “boyfriend” loophole.
- 07/29/2022 CHIPS and Science Act, the most significant research bill passed in a generation, including a $56 billion investment in American semiconductor production to incentivize companies to move chip production back into the United States.
- 08/02/2022 Honoring our PACT Act of 2022, provides healthcare and other services related to veterans who were exposed to toxic substances during military service.
- 08/07/2022 Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the largest climate investment in US history, lowers prescription drug prices by giving Medicare the power to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs and extends expiring health care subsidies for three years.
Of course, there are countless things to do. If spurred by the Kansas result, one was in the activist mode, one could support NARAL Pro-Choice America, the premier advocacy organization for choice. You could strengthen Sarah Longwell’s Republican Voters Against Trump, even if you are not necessarily a Republican voter. The States Project is focused entirely on state legislative races, trying to create a post-Kansas fervor. And you won’t find a better set of field coordinators than Common Power and the grassroots organizations with which they partner.
For the first time since the inceptions of these messages in the darkest hours of 2016, we are going to underscore just one thing that each of us should do:
Arizona houses the most bizarre set of election deniers in the country. That might be okay, if one of them wasn’t the Republican candidate for Secretary of State, who supervises elections! This is quite unbelievable that a major political party would nominate Mark Finchem, an Oath Keeper who after multiple recounts and election audits continues to call for the decertification of the Biden victory. Finchem’s Democratic opponent is former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes.Mi Familia Vota did extraordinary work in the 2020 election. It is no exaggeration to say that Joe Biden would not have won Arizona without them. Among other quests, they are dedicated to registering and rallying Latino voters to beat Finchem, saying “to have this person be the states’ top election official is truly frightening.”Mi Familia Vota has budgeted $20,000 for targeted digital ads to beat Finchem and elect Fontes. Adding $10,000 immediately is our new special project. Many of us have been together in this blog world for six years. For this $10,000 campaign, we proudly have our own ActBlue link, which underscores our goal! You can make your mark for election integrity by watching this $10,000 boost to Mi Familia Vota grow, and making it grow.
David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington
