#23: We Have Never Had Any Choice But to Take Back the House

EMERGENCY ALERT: We interrupt this post that is focused on other dangers and threats. There is an emerging threat that the Graham-Cassidy effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act will be brought to the Senate floor this week. Please email these Senators and beseech them not to play along on this all new scheme to take health care away from the Americans who most need it: 

• Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska 
  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine 
  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona 
  Rachel Green, Legislative Aide for Dean Heller, Nevada

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It’s time to collect ourselves as we (and so many others) continue this largely successful effort to curb the countless excesses of Donald Trump, and thus protect our nation. It is also the time to make certain our fervor does not dissipate.

We all have done better in the past 10 months than we might have expected. The Affordable Care Act is wounded but it stands. The wall is unbuilt, proposed State Department cuts have been pushed back, Russia has been sanctioned and Planned Parenthood is funded. On the other end of the ledger, a new Supreme Court Justice has been confirmed, executive orders have diminished the environment, and the President has regularly contributed to international instability. Ahead of us is a major battle over taxation, and the extent to which tax “reform” exacerbates or alleviates huge wealth disparities in our country.

We never have had any choice but to take back the House in November of 2018, and the chances are very good that we will accomplish that goal. More moderate Republican members of Congress like Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington have announced they are not seeking reelection, making their swing districts far more vulnerable for Democratic takeover. We need 24 seats to take back control of the House, and could get more than 40.

The key word is could. First, there is no danger that Donald Trump is going to significantly increase his voter approval. The John Kelly molded man seeking to look presidential will return to the true mold each time Kelly looks the other way. The unfettered, uninformed and unprincipled Trump is the essence of the man.

So that may mean that the biggest impediment to taking back the House is us. Pogo said “We have met the enemy and they are us.” We must defend against three ways we could take ourselves down. We could pull defeat out of the jaws of victory in the fall of 2018 with no cohesion, or no leaders, or no ideas.

The first test is how people who previously Sanders and Clinton work together. So far, the signs are encouraging. Neither Sanders nor Clinton is going to be the 2020 nominee, and their strongest supporters know that already, which is freeing. There will be meaningful Democratic policy/political differences in scores of Congressional primaries, but those can strengthen us. Additionally, the fears that “identity politics” will make us less than our collective sum are not founded. Passion fuels us. By November of 2018, we need to display unity, not uniformity.

Who will lead us is the bigger question. Did we not realize during the reign of Harry Reid that having the Senate Minority Leader as our spokesperson on the evening news will inevitably become a problem? Good minority leaders are tacticians. They relentlessly attend to the key concerns of each Democratic Senator. They automatically illuminate their political sides. The clear articulation of our aspirations and agenda is not the prime gift of either Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. Hopefully, this need will start to get filled when various presidential aspirants start to appear. The New York Times has given its sought after attention to eight candidates.  

And, of course, we must and will become sharper about the why, the reasons why Americans should select our candidates rather than those allied to Trump. Some of these more refined positions will come out of Democratic primary races. These will be especially pointed in their disputes over international trade, within a party that houses both protectionists and free traders. The policy focus which will not emerge naturally is the interwoven series of initiatives that will respond anew to uneven economic opportunity in America’s regions. Actually, Democrats have been addressing these for some time, but it is not clear the public has been aware of that. It is broken and must be fixed.

All together, we give the resistance to Trump unbounded energy. That energy will drive and improve the responses to the three above challenges of cohesion, leadership and ideas.

If our indispensable weekly attention to these matters is waning, a little, then we will be less likely to gain the outcome we seek. Here are three things we personally can do to sharpen our engagement:

1) Please, please, please pick your Congressional campaign
	Campaigns are won or lost from their inception, not on the day the results are posted. We all felt Trump-generated despair from the moment he got the sufficient Comey-boost to gain election. We looked for every opportunity to fully and genuinely resist. Even if you have never picked a campaign in the past, it is time to pick one now. Read the newspaper to decide which, if any, Congressional races near you are going to be heavily contested. There will be 60 or so at least somewhat competitive races so you are going to find one, even if you have to consider a neighboring state. Use the excellent online resources which are available to help you sort things out. These include Indivisible and Swing Left either of which can help you sort out targeted races. Even though they have been excruciatingly absent from the organizing side of the picture, get on the e-mailing list of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Also make it a point to keep tabs on your state Democratic party. After you pick your race, go see the candidate or one of her or his aides if they are within driving distance. If you don’t live in their district, join an Indivisible cell or other organizing group that will “adopt” the candidate. If such a group doesn’t already exist, organize it yourself. Do not be discouraged if there already five or six candidates indicating their interest. Pick the one who you find compelling. Even if your candidate isn’t the one moving forward, you will be adding to our collective strength.
2) Where you have special skills, advance them.
	Take an inventory of your skills. Start by making yourself good at door-to-door work. Eventually every campaign finds these resources essential, not just as a tool for swaying voters but even more as a tool to make certain we identify who is with us so we can get them to the polls. In 2016 we did not get the voter turnout we hoped for in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That should provide some motivation. What other skills do you have? Can you raise money? Could you give money, even in the form of a monthly pledge? Organize events? Could you participate in or lead a letter writing campaign, or organize social media? Intermediaries are cropping up to make certain people with high-demand skills get found. Tech for Campaigns is an organization that is recruiting and deploying all manner of technology-savvy people.
3) Start your own voter registration campaign
	Even if you live in an enclave where people are red hot about their politics, you are surrounded by people who aren’t registered to vote. Or you know some people in other places who haven’t registered. They are young and haven’t got into the voting habit, or they have moved, or maybe they are disenchanted with the present situation. (How could that possibly be the case?) How about figuring out how to do a voter registration drive this winter and spring among high school seniors who are just turning 18.  Or, emphasize the 35 states who offer online voter registration. Scroll down on this site, find the link to online registration in your target state, and send the link to people you suspect have yet to register.

There will always be countless issues on which we must engage, and new Trumpian horrors to confront. Trump says that in all of his bullying, his disregard for even the most basic of truths, and his relentless promotion of himself and his properties, he is being “presidential” in a “modern” way. Could you imagine anything further from the truth than that? Or anything more motivating for all of us.

We continue to seek the day that we can say that it is a former President that said such a thing. It is a good time to re-assess how each of us is doing, and to determine and do what is necessary.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#22: We Must Prevent Him From Afflicting the Afflicted and Comforting the Comfortable

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

This fall will bring a whole new set of issues which must be engaged by those who are worried about how our country will move forward. The summer recess by Congress removed the sporadically achieved "regular order" that John McCain sought.

In its place, we got Donald Trump even more unmoored, lurching through Charlottesville and Steve Bannon's departure, throwing out random Korea threats, seeking approval from Fox News and from late night calls with cronies. He has the most tortured nights at the White House since Abraham Lincoln walked at midnight. How awful it must feel to have only tweets and calling Roger Stone as your solace.

There will be a broader set of crises this fall - North Korea, Robert Mueller's progress, the Hurricane Harvey aftermath and with it the realization that Donald Trump has no capacity to lead the response. Notably, there will be an effort this fall by a bipartisan group of senators to shore up the health insurance markets that Donald Trump has roiled.

However, the best opportunities this fall for the millions of us who are dedicated to resistance will come in the areas of budget, finance and tax. Congress will determine whether and how the debt ceiling will be raised, how the government will be funded for the next several months, and how our taxes will be "reformed".

These are not just numbers on the page. Regarding the extension of government spending into December or January, we either will have a funded and functioning State Department and Foreign Service or we will not. Huge budget cuts for the EPA can be prevented. The modest Federal support of Planned Parenthood can be maintained. And, we can remove Donald Trump's thumb from the eye of the Mexican people by not building the wall.

Two forces will converge in assisting us in meeting these goals. First, Republicans are not unmindful that Donald Trump's criticisms of them can damage them politically, but they are still more worried about him and less scared of him than at any time since he was elected.

Secondly, and as important, the rules of the Senate will strengthen the hands of the Democrats by requiring 60 votes to close off debate on both the budget resolution and the increase in the debt ceiling. This will give Charles Schumer and his Senate Democrat colleagues plenty of leverage.

In the House, the Freedom Caucus will want significant Medicaid cuts as a part of a deal to increase the debt ceiling. Paul Ryan may have to make a deal with Democrats to keep the government open, which in turn could imperil his speakership. To him and to Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump is no help on any of this.

Tax reform will test the resistance, because Democratic members of Congress have some interest in adjusting the levels of corporate taxation, seeking to boost companies to higher levels of international competitiveness. Here's where the devil will be there with the details. Past tax reform efforts have exacerbated the growing wealth maldistribution that plagues America. Corporate tax reductions of the recent past have not resulted in levels of corporate investment in people, plants, and equipment that policymakers have projected.

Donald Trump, in the face of all these challenges, will want to afflict the afflicted and comfort the comfortable. These three actions can make certain we go in the right direction:

1) Senator Schumer, Tear Down That Wall
	Donald Trump still wants to build the wall. As he told Mexican President Peña Nieto in January he needs to do so because he promised his base he would. To the rest of us this is not a compelling reason to proceed. Certainly, there is political significance for him winning or losing this battle, but this proposal is about a greater crime - treating another nation as Trump lackeys and living a lie about Mexico. The good news is that the Senate rules and Trump's unpopularity are giving Democrats more traction on budget items. However, with that traction comes the promising but delicate opportunity to trade with Republican leadership, securing a gain on one front while making a sacrifice on another. Write minority leader Schumer's key staff member and tell her that for millions of us any building of the wall is not acceptable. Meghan Taira Legislative Director (202) 224-6542 meghan_taira@schumer.senate.gov
2) Confront Tax Reform as a Wealth Disparity Issue
	It's easy to get lost in the technical complexity of tax reform. It's that complexity that could make it possible for there to be some bipartisan support for a reduction in corporate tax rates without anyone sufficiently addressing ways to address wealth disparities and the continued gilding of the very rich. Corporate tax reform is a new opportunity for Mitch McConnell to pick off Democratic senators from states which Donald Trump won, including Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota, Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Claire McCaskill from Missouri. Email these three legislative directors and tell the Senator for whom they work to demand tax fairness as an indispensable element of any bill they support: janelle_mcclure@mccaskill.senate.gov tracee_sutton@heitkamp.senate.gov wesley_kunge@manchin.senate.gov Check Americans for Tax Fairness for any underlying information you need.
3) Re-gear for Planned Parenthood
	The defeat of the "skinny" health care bill with John McCain's dramatic thumbs-down saved Planned Parenthood funding for now. This battle will remain pitched until we take back the House in 2018. As outlined in missive #19, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is our leader and deserves our thanks. Attention must now be paid to strengthen an already strong reproductive freedom movement. Planned Parenthood has an all new initiative built around the defense and advocacy for 600 clinics around the country and they are looking for more help from you today.

It just keeps on. Donald Trump says he loves dreamers except when he kicks them out of the country. He loves Harvey victims except when he treats the whole disaster like his own reality tv show.

He sees South Korea and China as major partners fighting the dangers of Kim Jong-un except for when he tweet-trashes them.

As a movement, we continue to grow. We are parrying everywhere we can and we are having great success. This demands our concentration every week as new offenses emerge, but there is no question that all of us together are up to this job.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington