#36: Responding to the Sounds of Republicans Whistling in the Dark

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

You can definitely understand their motivation if you hear someone whistling as they walk through a long, dark, foreboding, seemingly endless tunnel. Shapes appear in the murkiness and it is difficult to keep your footing. Why wouldn’t you try to develop some reasons why everything is going to be all right? Or in the alternative, at least you would entertain a narrative by which you could take certain steps, things won’t be as bad as you had feared. 

The seat that Democrat Conor Lamb just won in Pennsylvania is somewhere around 119th on the list of possible wins by Democrats! Republicans are in the dark tunnel, and are terrified of the potential of a blue wave. So they are trying to tell a different story saying that the Democratic victory was due entirely to the appeal of Conor Lamb's centrist policies. But Republican Congressman Charlie Dent counters those tales--- “Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt. I have seen wave elections before.” 

Any giddiness within the resistance about November prospects is unwise. Do we remember that the Access Hollywood tape was supposed to have made Donald Trump unelectable in the first place? But, what we are displaying as the creators of a blue wave in the fall is not giddiness, but relentlessness. There’s a difference.

The tactical argument, made by Republican consultant Jeff Roe in Sunday’s New York Times, is that Republicans will significantly reduce their November losses if their candidates stay with Trump rather than fleeing from him. The issue here is whether a Republican incumbent needing some of the numerous Trump-discontented swing voters in a heavily contested district could find such voters by ending their Trump genuflection. Roe argues that such a dive in the direction of the center by incumbents could jettison core Republican votes and end up being self-defeating. Roe brings forward his fantasies about the tax bill and even the appeal of Trump’s beginning the construction of a wall. Yes, please, we are all hoping fervently that Republicans will all get behind wall construction, and Mexico paying for it, as their central campaign theme. But, his more important argument is the idea that this election is primarily about who energizes their base. If that were true, that wouldn’t be so bad, but the truth is even better --- the election this fall is only partly about who energizes their base.

Trump and his henchpeople are trying to summon their base when they trash Mueller, or act as a Fox News broadcasting outlet. They saw the election results in Pennsylvania, and last fall in Virginia, and it has become self-evident that the resistance to Trump is translating to higher motivation and participation of those opposing Trump. They understand that the fall elections aren't just who one supports, it is who casts a ballot. Trump fears that if he stops tweeting untruthful things, his supporters won’t cast ballots.

Swing Left has been targeting 65 Republican held seats. The Cook report has been arguing that somewhere around 80 are in serious play. Somewhat belatedly coming to the conclusion that things are getting interesting, the House Democratic Campaign Committee is now talking about 98. We need to win 24. How do we do that besides energizing the base?

• We make our base bigger by getting 18-24 olds to register at a much higher level than their present 24%. The resistance is focusing on this goal across America.
• We fight back against the voter suppression efforts in swing states like Wisconsin that are dedicated to discouraging people from registering and voting.
• We support intensive voter identification and get out the vote efforts everywhere.
• We contest every single independent voter. Trump got a last-minute surge of women voters in November of 2016 after FBI director Comey made his late announcement on the Clinton emails. We are winning those votes back through Trump continuing to be Trump. By 56% to 32% women voters would prefer to see Democrats controlling Congress. 
• We expose the truth about Trump legislative “victories”. We must continue to remind independent voters that the tax bill is heading us toward trillion-dollar annual deficits.

Meanwhile, Congress continues to attend sporadically to the legislative role in running the country. Accordingly, Congress is putting our environment at risk, and not just through actions they generate on their own.   They are allowing Trump, Scott Pruitt and Ryan Zinke to work their will on the enforcement of environmental laws that were devised over forty years by Democrats and Republicans working together. We can do three things right away.

1)Stop the Poison Pen Riders
	Congress needs to pass a spending bill by Friday, and they can’t do it without Democratic votes. Even with that situation, House Republicans have proposed 80 separate appropriations “riders” that are designed to weaken environmental protections.   For instance, last year Republican Senators John McCain, Lindsay Graham and Susan Collins joined in helping Democrats protect methane gas regulations that Trump and Pruitt were trying to eviscerate. Now there is a House rider being advanced that would exempt oil and gas companies from methane rules. This is one for the member of the House of Representatives from your own district. Call or email her or him and insist that they oppose the riders. Or, since Charles Schumer and his Democratic colleagues in the Senate are in a strong negotiating position, call your Democratic Senator’s staff and tell them how much this means to you.
2) Keep the Focus on Climate Change
	Who knows what will happen with Donald Trump and the Paris Climate Accords going forward. There were some signals that he might be softening about removing the United States from the agreement, but then again there were arguments that he might help protect Dreamers through DACA or might limit gun purchases by 18 year olds, so don’t hold your carbon-added breath…  Instead, please boost the growing coalition of Governors who have formed their own Climate Alliance, who aren’t waiting for the federal government, and are showing their own leadership on climate change. Seventeen Governors have already joined the coalition. Check the list to see if your Governor has joined. If she or he hasn’t call their office today and seek to rectify the situation. While you are at it, do a check to see how your city or town is lessening its own carbon footprint. If your councilpersons don’t know the answer to this question, they should find out the answer and give it to you. Trumps climate position will be increasingly isolated if more states get with the program, the more Trump and his climate position will be isolated.
3) Time to Join the Herd
	For a moment it seemed as if Donald Trump (spurred by Laura Ingraham!) was with conservationists in battling what he called the “horrors” of the trade in elephant tusks. But the danger has increased that the import of elephant tusks will again be allowed. Ryan Zinke has included trophy hunting proponents in his “advisory committee” and import permits may soon be issued.   There are a lot of good ways to help elephants survive. Right now, it seems as if being part of a world-wide movement to block markets for tusks is an outstanding approach. Wild Aid is an inventive advocacy organization that is using social media to get you to Join the Herd. This is your chance.

It does seem endless, this Trump-opposing quest we are on. It seems as if he has been the President of sorts for a decade, at least. The rewards of being part of the opposition have been there from the beginning, as the Affordable Care Act was wounded, but saved by our collective efforts. With the November elections approaching, and the primaries preceding them, the rewards will start to increase--- if we keep on doing the right thing, every day.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#35: How We Are All Turning a Campaign into a Movement

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Martin Luther King said that “the arc of the moral universe bends toward justice.” Enmeshed and sometimes overwhelmed in the world of 2018, we should find it comforting and healthy to understand that gains in justice and human rights over 5+ decades have been monumental.

Our trajectory toward justice has not been permanently altered by this President, but it is not wrong to see our collective response to Donald Trump as a battle over that arc. Certainly, one must be careful in assigning any U.S. political campaign of the past 50 years any place at all in the world of justice-seeking or justice-denying. However, if you were to choose a time to make such a judgement about when campaigns can turn into a movement for justice, today would be an excellent choice.

There have been plenty of presidential candidates over these decades whose election one could find disheartening. One could cite specific actions the newly elected officials subsequently took that were ruinous. For instance, George W. Bush made up an entire war. But, at least each of these past presidents took pride in leading the country, had expectations for themselves, read things, and subscribed to some core notions about democracy. This is a different time, but not because of destructive executive orders, bad legislation and scary appointments. It is because of Trump’s unrelenting, contemptuous approach to the nature and the dreams of the republic for which we stand.

That is what has concentrated opposition into the resistance. It is what has turned that which otherwise would be a political campaign into a movement. The extent to which it can maintain and sustain itself as a movement will determine the outcome in November. In terms of how to maintain and sustain this effort, it may be difficult to believe but there are lessons from the peace movement of the late 60’s and early 70’s. Closer examination reveals more than history's judgement that the focus of 1968 was on sex, drugs and dropping out. Instead, the most telling focus of 1968 was the movement to end the war, and to dramatically change the American politics of that time. There were two ways that this movement was uncommon, both lessons for us now.

First, the peace movement reached way beyond the rolls of people who would have been expected to participate in it. Like the Women’s Marches of January 2017 and January 2018, and the organization of Indivisible and other resistance cells, it activated into its ranks millions of people who had previously thought themselves to be non-political. In some cases, it caused people to change a political persuasion that had long been adhered to in their family. New questions were being asked around the kitchen table, and all of a sudden Ozzie and Harriet’s kids were in the streets. You knew you were not in ordinary times.

Second, this movement was able to achieve a relentlessness and a momentum that became a story unto itself. Elected officials knew that the movement wasn’t going away. Leaders avoided the pulling apart that inevitably visits movements that themselves are a coalition. As in the resistance of 2018, if you were a participant in the peace movement in 1968, there was always something to do, and you never stopped being engaged, and each month there were more people by your side. In 1968, all that without an internet! The resistance thus far already has demonstrated the capacity to translate outrage and dismay about Trump into electoral results. The current level of relentlessness and commitment is a gift that should not be squandered. If we keep it up, there will be a huge blue wave in November. As uneven as Democrats are in their performance, we will have attended to the arc of justice.

These missives have detailed several ways that each of us can heighten our engagement in 2018, including using Swing Left, Indivisible, or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to pick and support one or more candidates. Here are three fresh ways you can make to help increase the number of people who envelop themselves, and the extent of their new obsession.

1) Sharply Increase Latino Participation
	After Mitt Romney lost the presidency to Barack Obama, Republican leaders commissioned a report analyzing their political future. The subsequent “autopsy” report argued that because of the growth in the U.S. of the Latino population, Republicans pushing away Latino voters would seriously weaken their presidential prospects in 2016 and beyond.  Donald Trump avoided that predicted fate in 2016, but he and his colleagues will not be so fortunate in 2018 and 2020. Nearly 40% of all newly registered voters since 2012 are of Hispanic origin, and the efforts to mobilize the Latino community are intensifying. The new voters will be especially key in Nevada and Arizona Senate races, as well as Beto O’Rourke’s longer shot challenge to Ted Cruz in Texas.  Earlier missives have underscored the important role of Mi Familia Vota, which concentrates its efforts in six Southwestern and Western states. Another important organization which could use a boost this very moment is Voto Latino, which uses inventive digital methods (including their “text to register” campaign) and has registered more than 300,000 voters.
2) Find an All New Path to Recruiting New Voters
	Nonprofit organizations employ 13 million people across the country. They have 60 million volunteers. Their programs connect with and often serve communities whose voting levels are lower, and they are often seen as a trusted messenger. With this impact on our country, and with a huge interest in how government serves the people, why wouldn’t nonprofit organizations play a key role in voter registration?  Some of the leaders of America’s nonprofit community, including Independent Sector, feel exactly that way. They have started an excellent campaign to persuade nonprofits to 1) help their staff and volunteers register, and 2) start registration campaigns to reach the broader community. Nonprofit Vote has done a meticulous job of showing nonprofits what can be done and how to do it. Time to send this link to several of your favorite nonprofits to make certain they fully consider this opportunity.
3) Change the Law to make it Easier to Register
	The Voting Rights and Elections program at NYU’s Wagner Center continues to do excellent work battling voter suppression. In addition to stopping the efforts to make registration and voting more difficult, how can we turn the issue around? In what ways can we make registration and voting easier?  Here too there is an all new angle. The Brennan Center also has outlined the growing movement toward automatic registration of voters, which has now been enacted in nine states and the District of Columbia. These states will immediately register citizens when they seek government services such as receiving a Driver’s License. Some states are now guaranteeing that the automatic registration approach is also available to 16 and 17 year olds, so that they will be ready to vote immediately after their 18th birthday.  It’s time to check the Brennan Center site to see where your state stands, and it’s time to write your legislator to make certain she or he is a proponent of new registration strategies.

Robert Mueller will be increasingly watchable over the next several months. A few Republican Senators will continue to afford Mueller, deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein and FBI director Christopher Wray the protection they need from the attacks of Donald Trump. Washington is already so beset and askew with the upcoming elections that bi-partisan legislation on any subject at all is nearly impossible. So we will focus on the elections too, and prove that they were right to feel beset. 

It is within our abilities to guarantee that the November 2018 election will have an unprecedented level of participation. Now is the time to do that indispensable core work. When volunteers work on phones on November 6 to get out the vote, let’s make sure right now that they have the biggest possible list from which to work. That would be the right thing to do.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington