Wednesday, June 26, 2019

#69: Let This Be One Time Trump’s Telling the Truth

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It’s not a bad thing to be intent a nominating a Democratic presidential candidate who has an excellent chance of winning. Even better, there is no thought of nominating a sports star or tv personality to heighten our chances, and every likely nominee has something to say about herself or himself, though in some cases (Bill di Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, Eric Swallwell, Kirsten Gillibrand) they do not have as much to say for themselves as we would like.

All 24 fall within the political range of “liberal” Joe Biden and “progressive” Elizabeth Warren. There is not nearly as much distance between all the main candidates as political commentators would like, as evidenced by their announced positions. Thus there seems a good chance that we can take this week’s 21 candidate fish fry picture from South Carolina and replicate it on the convention stage at the Democratic Convention in Milwaukee on July 16, 2020.



That coming together was way too slow in 2016. It was just fine that Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton had some policy positions to reconcile. It seemed obvious that Bernie thought that a Trump victory was unthinkable and that he could thus take as much time as he wanted to provide his full support of Hillary. Too bad he wasn’t right about that. The dance went on and on and dissipated campaign momentum. 

We’re the donors and supporters for all of these people, so we can have considerable influence how they come together during this election cycle. We can be the enforcers, keeping the candidate’s eyes on the prize, making sure their criticism of each other stays within bounds. Joe Biden was fighting for civil rights when other candidates were riding tricycles, so he is due some deference. Nonetheless, talking about James Eastland and Herman Talmadge should not carry even the faintest whiff of nostalgia. It was fine for Cory Booker to call Biden on that, as long as he remembers that it is Trump with the racist bones.

A good way to guarantee our candidates will be together at the end is to make certain they daily embrace our collective agenda on the challenges our country faces. It never happens that the American voter is resolutely opposed to all of the viewpoints of an American president, except for right now! So, why not have the number one thing we do between now and November be showing how wrong Trump is in what he wants for America, and what we want instead?

This means defining our differences with Trump on health care and the coverage of pre-existing conditions so often that candidates can barely muster the strength to say it one more time. Our debate over Medicare for All and expansions of the Affordable Care Act will be highly consequential, eventually. In the shorter run, the dominant health care issue is Donald Trump’s assaults on Barack Obama’s steps forward, famously thwarted by John McCain.

The voters are with us, not him. 68% of voters want secure coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. 66% believe global warming is caused by humans. 67% want Roe v Wade kept as is. 67% say separation of children at the border is unacceptable. 77% support the NATO alliance, and only 34% support the President’s tax “reform” law.

In the face of the views of voters and the action of the House, Donald Trump says we will focus on the core of his voters, rather than upon independents. Please please please let him be telling the truth just this once! That would hand over the Senate as well as the Presidency.

Through every Trump-stained day, the Congress remains a separate branch of government. On many of those days, Mitch McConnell grudgingly calls the Senate into session. He goes through Kabuki like gestures of feigned independence, fully aware that his soul has been claimed by another. Because now again a spirited Republican makes a run for it, and could use some cover, we need to attend to what is happening in the Senate. We need to identify the cases where bi-partisan action can do some good for our country, and do what we can to make that action more robust.

First, far more important than the daily coverage of AOC’s tweets are the actual bills that Nancy Pelosi’s House has passed and which Mitch McConnell has sent to his legislative graveyard. These include bills to block dark money in campaigns, protect net neutrality, establish universal background checks for firearms, defend Dreamers, establish paycheck fairness, and protect women against violence. In some cases, we can detect and drive new action from a hint of Republican shame that they haven’t taken up these bills.

Second, there are the bills in the Senate that have offended the conscience of Republicans who don’t think the Saudis should be able to bomb civilian populations in Yemen or dismember journalists. We can tend to the idea that we can stand for something worldwide outside of love letters to dictators, and we can make certain that Senators are held accountable if they turn their heads away.

Third, there is the budget legislation that is necessary to keep the government open and the required lifting of the debt ceiling. This is the hardest one for McConnell, because it can’t be evaded and because he has to deal with the hydra that is developing budget policy for the executive branch--- Trump himself, who regularly makes agreements with Senate leadership and then pretends he hasn’t, and Sean Hannity, who is his tv advisor, and who has shown some considerable distance from the approach of Walter Cronkite. The only way McConnell will get the necessary votes from Democrats is to attend to social welfare spending, which Trump can’t abide. Look for Trump to threaten to shut down the government, and to “own” any such shutdown this time too.

We must continue to intervene, which now and again has either brought success or prevented the worst President from doing the worst thing. There are a dozen Senators who are trying to have it both ways. They don’t dare to try to resurrect bills from McConnell’s graveyard, but they want to respond to voters and get re-elected in 2020. Here’s three ways we can light their path:

1) Support Lindsey Graham’s Proposal!
Once Lindsay Graham forgot his best friend John McCain and started carrying water daily for Donald Trump, redemption became an impossibility. Now, happily, despite no redemptive path, he has joined Democrats Amy Klobuchar and Mark Warner in introducing Senate Bill 1989, the Honest Ads Act. This measure would subject internet advertising to the same rules of disclosure as ads on television and in the newspaper. Thus it would defend against “dark money” advertising that infects social media. It has already passed the House as a part of a broader election reform bill. Mitch McConnell is predictably disinterested, but Graham will get the bill a hearing. It needs co-sponsors. Email your own two Senator and ask them both to co-sponsor this bill. Then call the DC offices of Susan Collins (202-224-2523) and Thom Tillis (202-224-6342) and ask them to join Lindsey Graham.

2) 
Weigh in On Emergency Border Funding
It’s time for us all to get involved in the plan to provide emergency border funding. This too will end up being a bipartisan compromise. Democrats want funding to pay for the needs of those people housed in detention facilities, but don’t want to end up creating resources that can be transferred to ICE. At this point, the House bill is stronger than the Senate. Call Arizona Senator Martha McSally at 202-224-2235 and tell her that it is time for her to get focused on deplorable border conditions and that the world is watching. Sign up for emails from the National Immigration Law Center to monitor this situation. 

3) 
Create an Entirely New Legislative World
We can take back the Senate in the fall of 2020 with the same formula we used in taking back the House in 2018. 22 Republican Senate seats are up, at least a dozen Republican Senators are vulnerable, and we need a net gain of four seats. There are a lot of organizations playing a role in taking back the Senate, including Swing Left and their wonderfully reasoned Super State strategy. If you aren’t being focused enough right now, there are 59,000 resisters writing targeted postcards in targeted races through Tony the Democrat.

We can do this. From W.H. Auden in 1939:
     Defenseless under the night
     Our world in stupor lies;
     Yet, dotted everywhere
     Ironic points of light
     Flash out wherever the Just
     Exchange their messages:
     May I, composed like them
     Of Eros and dust
     Beleaguered by the same
     Negation and despair.
     Show an affirming flame.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

#68: You Can Keep a Bad Man Down

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends. If you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook where you can read and share these messages. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Until November 6, 2020, no expressions of joy or impromptu dances will be permitted. It is nice to have the most important election of our lifetimes shaping up. It certainly beats the alternative. But of course we are not close to done. We can drive ourselves through positive recognition of what we resistors have accomplished so far and will accomplish next year, and skip the head-shaking, energy draining despair part, which doesn’t do us any good.

It’s great to have Joe Biden poll four points ahead of Donald Trump in Texas, because putting Texas in play would be delicious, and it would signal the opening up of other states we haven’t won recently. The more states legitimately in play, the better for us. Trump’s disapproval ratings outstrip his approval ratings in lots of states he needs to win, like New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana. We won the Congressional popular vote by 8.6 million votes last November, and Trump is not showing signs of making inroads, or even knowing how to make inroads. Isn’t his act pretty clear by now?

The Texas poll is not even the best news. 57% of American voters have no plans to vote for Trump. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 13 points in a head to head matchup, and Warren, Sanders, Harris, Booker and Buttigieg all significantly ahead as well. Analysts continue to stress Trump’s strength with his base, but he can’t win without a strong showing among independents, and they have walked away from him, many in a hurry. Among independents, Biden leads Trump by 30 percentage points! 

We can seek and achieve gains with each category of voter. Even diehard white male Trump voters can have their breaking point. An Iowa farmer might be less Trump-besotted after Trump destroys the Chinese market for his soybeans and then insists that it’s the Chinese who are suffering the economic losses from the tariffs.

It’s good to remember where we achieved significant gains in November 2018 that we need to sustain. We need to continue to be attentive to:
  • suburban women, who put Trump over the top in 2016 and who have flown since, in many cases providing our winning margins in taking back House seats. It is clear that health care is a big issue for these voters, as is reproductive freedom, and Trump’s unabated misogyny.
  • independents and Republicans who are lifelong free traders, and who are now in closer step with Democratic candidates, who seek trade protection and advantage but are not tariff-abusers.
  • voters aged 18 to 30, who due to considerable registration and get out the vote efforts, cast ballots in their highest off-year election numbers in 40 years. They broke decisively away from Trump in 2018 and need to do it again. Trump’s favorability rating with this age cohort is under 30%.
Democratic leads among women, Hispanics, and African Americans are huge. Sure you can’t keep a good man down, but Trump is not a good man, so you can keep him down. 

The Congressional Research Service has established what we already knew, that the new tax law was a raiding of the treasury. Any growth it has generated has covered only 5% of the revenues lost. By far its greatest impact has been corporations repurchasing their own shares, benefiting their largest shareholders and thus comforting the comfortable. In response, our candidates will demonstrate their plans to get the middle class back in the nation’s field of vision. 

Our candidates are running on advancing health care, protecting those with pre-existing conditions, and once and for all, rejoining the community of nations in fighting climate change. They are running on restoring global alliances that have served our country well. They are seeking to decommission tariffs as an all-purpose weapon randomly applied against our friends. They are for advancing the rule of law, knowing how government works, and keeping dictators at a distance.

By October 1, there will need to be action on the federal budget and a lifting of the federal debt ceiling. Congress will face the latter decision earlier than otherwise because of the drastic reduction in federal revenues caused by tax “reform.” By the end of the summer, they will have another major issue depending on what position Fox TV commentators and Donald Trump develop. We will need a federal budget for the next fiscal year and an increase in the debt ceiling. Democrats will refuse to budge on wall construction. Both parties will try to avoid automatic budget cuts that reduce both defense and domestic spending, and will want to compromise by funding each other’s priority, thus increasing the deficit. Will Donald Trump seek to shut down the government, and own the resulting debacle all over again?

There will be a time this summer to try and push Mitch McConnell and his caucus away from the “legislative graveyard” they have created with House-passed bills. A few Republicans are inclined to push back against his intransigence. Perhaps more exciting, an even larger number of Republican Senators are battling Trump on his terms for selling arms to Saudi Arabia. Many members are interested in ways to rein in his out of control tariff-slapping escapades. Since mild disapproval of Trump’s course of action is seen by Republican Senators as eligible for inclusion in Profiles in Courage, we will need to defeat Trump before any kind of real Republican Party emerges. If then.

For now, with the Democratic debates coming up, let’s attend to our own candidates. At the presidential level, passion to fix the huge problems we face is the start, but not the end. Let’s find a presidential candidate and a vice presidential candidate who are leaders, who can unite their party, who can capture the imagination and support of the voters, who care about people, and who will soundly defeat Donald Trump. As we get them elected, let’s defend the House and give them the majorities in the Senate and in a growing number of state legislatures so they can get their job done.

Let’s do these three things now:

1) Pick a Presidential Candidate Who is Trailing
It’s already become a game of inches for several of the declared Presidential candidates who are trailing. They dread being put on a media list of candidates who are surely going to fall by the wayside. In the near term, this list is very likely to include Bill de Blasio, Tulsi Gabbard, John Hickenlooper, Eric Swallwell, and Seth Moulton, among others. You can help other candidates escape this list and get a chance to increase their traction over the summer. You know that Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris and Booker are going to be around for a while. If you haven’t done it already, pick someone who may be trailing those six and donate to their campaign now or get on their mailing list, so you will get a chance to hear what they have to say and so they will have a chance to move up a tier, or perhaps become a vice presidential candidate. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar? Washington Governor Jay Inslee? Entrepreneur Andrew Yang?  Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro

2) 
Guarantee that Strong Candidates Help Us Take Back the Senate
There’s not a better plan out there to gain control of the Senate than Swing Left’s Super State Strategy. It’s important to understand that strategy, get on their list and watch that space. Let’s not stop there. Let’s help move people around a bit so we can get our best possible Senate candidates. Let’s write Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and beseech him to run against Republican John Cornyn for the Texas Senate seat in 2020. Use the ‘other’ field in Beto’s form to try and nudge him and his staff in that direction. 

As time goes on, we may want to try the same persuasion with Montana Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who could unseat Republican Senator Steve Daines by taking on this race rather than running for President.

3) 
Concentrate Your State Legislative Efforts on Virginia
There are a small number of states holding elections for the state legislature in 2019. Our best shot for a flip is Virginia, and a very good way to increase our chances is to sign up with Flippable. They have picked good candidates and need your help right now.

Why let Donald Trump guide your thoughts every day? Free yourself from Twitter torment by doing all the things we already know we need to do--- register voters, keep truth on the throne and off the scaffold, and boost good candidates who are intent on restoring our democracy.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington