#28 The More Intense the Resistance, the Shorter the Nightmare

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There are all sorts of adjectives to use to describe this bizarre presidency. It would be disappointing enough to have a President who all the time is bragging about things that he has done, but it is monumentally disappointing to have a president who also makes up virtually all the things he brags about.

Well, at least Donald Trump is resolving the argument about American exceptionalism! For all of our country’s flaws, one otherwise might have been inclined to take some special pride from our freedoms and protections under the Bill of Rights, or our orderly transfer of power after elections. And there are other ways that our country is a world leader - just fewer with each month. Ironically, it is Syria signing the climate change agreement that leaves us alone among nations.

If Congress passes a tax bill, it is already guaranteed that it will be an awful piece of legislation. Either version will benefit the rich at the hands of the middle class, and wound people with lower incomes. Either will unnecessarily and dangerously expand the deficit. Given these findings are well documented the reason why the bill’s passage is still likely is the calculation that virtually all Republicans in Congress have made. They know the bill will be unpopular with the public, but they believe that their cause (and their re-election chances) will suffer even greater or more certain or more lasting damage if they pass nothing at all.

It’s hard to be delighted at the dilemma they are in, since they are diminishing our economic future at the same time that they are endangering their political future. Their story seems even more unseemly when you realize that they have bought into the same Republican tax orthodoxy that has failed in the past, most recently in the fiscal near collapse of Kansas. To make the bad story worse, they have done it all at the urging of their donors, who will benefit the most.

The gift just keeps on not giving. The House version wipes out education benefits for students, teachers and institutions. The Senate seeks to do whatever they can to wreck the Affordable Care Act by eliminating the individual mandate. The House version eliminates the estate tax.

The odds are high that the Senate will pass a version of the bill by early next week, feeling that they must. Mitch McConnell will bestow extra blessings to get votes. Lisa Murkowski will receive drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Ron Johnson will get more favorable treatment for small business. James Lankford will get future promises of debt reduction. The beleaguered Susan Collins (not quite ready to flee her party, unfortunately) will be pushed by Republican leadership to decide which of her colleague’s injustices to redress, and will seek to save the estate tax, at least for estates above $20 million. That leaves three retiring deficit hawks - Bob Corker, Jeff Flake and John McCain.

As contemptuous as they have been of Trump, this is a battle the three would like to avoid. If they duck it, they will join their Republican colleagues in arguing that (overoptimistic) projected growth in the gross national product will wipe out the increases in the deficit. They are still Republicans. Other than McCain’s opposition to the “skinny” version of health care repeal, their votes against Trump have been selected or timed to be inconsequential.

There is a glimmer of hope for our opposition. It is one thing for McConnell to get votes in the Senate for the Senate bill, and yet another to get the votes in the Senate for a conference committee report or other vehicle containing additional compromises with the House. This leaves us with two reasons to generate all the activity we can.

First, we can try to create the opportunity for three Senators to do the right thing on the tax bill (or on a subsequent conference report or compromise with the House) like Murkowski, Collins and McCain did in opposing the Affordable Care Act. If this happens, the primary issue for the possible dissenting Senators (in this case Corker, McCain, Flake, Murkowski and Collins) will be that the bill hugely expands the budget deficit. Second, if we try and fail, we will still be generating strong support for our position from the general public, which will help us build for November 6, 2018, which we can make a great day in our nation’s history.

Let’s do these three things right away:

1) Make a Final Run at the Senate
	Write or call any or all of these Senators, emphasizing the argument that is most likely to sway them, if they are to be swayed at all, or which could strengthen their resolve in a dispute with the House. Bob Corker of Tennessee - He said all along he wasn’t willing to increase the deficit by a dollar. Tell him that the country’s leading economists are united that the Republican expectations of growth that will be generated by the tax bill are fanciful. He was right all along about not increasing the deficit, and they have failed to meet his test. (202) 224-3344 John McCain - Emphasize that this is a backdoor attempt to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, using the same lack of “regular order” he already deplored. David Bennett, Legislative Aide david_bennett@mccain.senate.gov (202) 224-2235 Jeff Flake - Say that the country needs him to stand behind his courageous and eloquent address about Donald Trump. (202) 224-4521 Susan Collins - Thank her for efforts on the estate tax and tell her the bill as a whole rejects the principles of fairness and equity that she stands for. Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff steve_abbott@collins.senate.gov (202) 224-2523 Lisa Murkowski - Tell her that in allowing the repeal of the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act she will be aiding in the eventual elimination of health care protection for millions of women who she has fought so hard to defend. (202) 224-6665
2) Defend American Education
	The most inexplicable part of the bill that passed the House is its assault on students, teachers and colleges. Teachers would lose the Educational Expense Deduction of $250, though the House has been quick to save any number of business expense deductions for corporations. Students would no longer be able to deduct interest paid on student loans. Graduate students would no longer find their research assistantships tax deductible, reducing their net income by 20% or more in a generation beset by student debt. A number of private colleges and universities would have their endowments taxed, even though these funds underpin student scholarships. Write the Republican Congressmen who lives closest to you and say how disappointed you are that they have singled out education for cuts while finding multiple ways to give extra advantage to high income taxpayers. At the best, the groundswell on this issue may soften the House in its negotiation with the Senate, whose education provisions are less draconian. Even without that outcome, the response to you might help underscore the vulnerability of that member of Congress come next November.
3) Get Our Country Some Better Members of the House and Senate
	The biggest problem with the Senate and the House of Representatives is that a not inconsiderable number of people who have been elected should not be there in the first place. Some are there because Democrats let down their guard, failing to generate the enthusiasm in off year elections that is a must when you are seeking to maintain a majority. Doug Jones’s effort to beat Roy Moore is huge. On December 12, we could gain a 49th Democratic vote in the Senate. At minimum, it will significantly increase the ability of Susan Collins and others to block Trump excesses. The Alabama race is flooded with money, but it will end up being very close, since leading Republicans have abandoned Moore. Here’s where you would send a check.  There is also a way to stand right now against the House tax bill and for taking back the House next year. Among the organizations bent upon taking back the house are Indivisible, which now has 6,000 local groups. Flippable has joined the fray and is focusing in part on taking back state legislatures. Sister Districts is also focused on “down ballot” races and matches up groups of people in safe districts with a targeted race in another part of the country. With the help of the donation system Act Blue, Swing Left has become an important pipeline to support emerging candidates in the sixty Congressional districts we have the best chance of taking back. You can now split your donation equally among opponents to House members who voted for the tax bill, thus letting your electoral displeasure be direct and immediate.

And on it goes. Some people have intentionally separated themselves from Trump’s daily assault on humanity. They aren’t prepared to tell you about wildly inappropriate remarks to Navajo codebreakers, bizarre self-aggrandizing exchanges with the father of a UCLA basketball player, or even a verbal assault on Jeff Flake. That’s an understandable defense mechanism, since in the world outside Trump there is love to be sought and given, dreams to be nurtured, the environment to be stewarded, and people in need to be served.

Whatever choice is made about the distance from the battle, we must not wait too long to re-engage. The more people we have in this country who in the course of every week show that they are resisting, the shorter our country’s nightmare will be.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#27: Virginia Results Reveal How We Will Take Back the House

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

Unfortunately, it isn’t just the same thing week after week. The damage is considerable, cumulative and growing. What seemed at one time to be strong examples of Donald Trump’s unfitness for the presidency (hanging up on the Australian prime minister, giving a political speech at the Boy Scout Jamboree) are now tame.

The new offenses against all senses are much worse. Putin is believed and admired, and the central elements of our democracy thus are actively besmirched. John McCain couldn’t have been more pointed: “There’s nothing America First: about taking the word of a KGB colonel over that of the American intelligence community. Vladimir Putin does not have America’s interests at heart. To believe otherwise is not only naïve but places our national security at risk.”

Our country is living a nightmare. And unbelievably, right now the most helpful recent rescuer is the very white knight himself, Steve Bannon, who actively seeks to tear the Republican Party in two. Bannon’s war on Republicanism strengthens our already excellent opportunity to take back the House of Representatives and provides a new small, but growing chance for an even greater prize -- the United States Senate.

We must not get ahead of ourselves. What is before us is a year of relentless focus on the elections that will take place on November 6, 2018, taking full advantage of the blueprint that just emerged in Virginia. As we proceed, let’s incorporate a measure of caution. So far, we are riding on Trump’s weaknesses and not on our own strengths. We can be reactive now, but we must ultimately gain greater clarity, cohesion and leadership. This will emerge. In the meantime, as we defend against the worst actions of a bizarre presidency, we will remember one thing more. Consuming our friends’ undeniably clever snarky posts and bits about Trump may be energizing, but they are no substitute for acting on issues and engaging in specific campaigns. We already know likes and re-tweets in and of themselves do not represent political action.

The very good news is that the story of next year is already partly written. Especially with Bannon out there trashing Republican Senators, it is going to be very difficult for Trump to reverse the dominant narrative where his unpopularity grows, and his prevarications pile up. The Virginia election results demonstrated the deterioration of his support from suburban women. Notably, it also revealed an enthusiasm boost borne out of the resistance. 450,000 more Virginians came to the polls to elect Northam over Gillespie than voted in the 2013 gubernatorial election.

The Virginia results have everything to do with how we can most certainly take back the House in 2018 and how we may even put the Senate into play. Off-year elections like the one next November almost always result in a push back against the party in power. When that same party is also fighting among themselves, their enthusiasm and participation wanes. In this context, changing the minds of voters is splendid, but even greater success lies in motivating and energizing those who already are disturbed about Trump. If they can feel our momentum and vote in droves, taking back 45 seats in the House is not out of the question. The House will then stand as a huge barrier to the diminishment of our democracy.

The reason why Republicans in both the House and Senate are fully committed to passing any tax bill is that they are searching for anything that could even partially inoculate them against a Democratic takeover of the House. The provisions in the House and Senate versions of the tax bill reveal what they want most now, so they can celebrate the holidays later: significant reductions in corporate taxes; special provisions that reduce tax exposure of those with very considerable assets; and tax cuts that provide a meaningful income tax reduction for most middle income and upper income taxpayers. In all three cases these proposals further exacerbate wealth maldistribution in America. It is a foregone conclusion that as much as 80% of the benefits to individuals will go to the top 5% of taxpayers.

The reduction in the corporate tax rate is intended to create comparable rates with our foreign economic competitors, but there is no guiding provision that will incentivize creation of family wage jobs. Special provisions include eliminating the estate tax in the House or sharply reducing it in the Senate, with leadership using the tax exposure of 50 farms a year to provide cover for a tax break for those with hundreds of millions of dollars of assets. Finally, even the rate reductions themselves have disproportionate value to high income taxpayers. If you provide a 7% reduction to a middle-income family which pays $10,000 a year, you are sending them an additional $700. If you provide a lower reduction of 5% to an upper income family which pays $200,000 a year, you are sending them $10,000.

What to do? How does one sort out individual actions? Let’s choose actions that push back against the unfortunate Republican tendency to select for special gilding things that are already gilded.

1) Say No on the Elimination of Estate Taxes
	For married couples, the federal estate tax comes into play when their assets upon passing are more than $11 million. Estate planning involves numerous legal ways to decrease this exposure, including making annual gifts to one’s children and grandchildren. Even though by far the greatest amount of these taxes are paid by those with assets over $200 million, its repeal is always on the Republican wish list. The current Senate proposal lifts the size of taxable estates to $22 million rather than eliminating the tax, an effort to retain the vote of Maine Senator Susan Collins on the overall bill. This battle has seen the surprising emergence of another Republican Senator, not at all known for taking on such disputes. This is Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota. He may start to bend under pressure, but see what you can do to reinforce his better sensibilities. He is unused to hearing from people across America. Call and tell his staff at 202- 224-5842 that he should stand his ground on estate taxes. Write legislative director Gregg Rickman at Gregg_Rickman@rounds.senate.gov. Or if you have a Republican Senator, write him or her and extend your thinking on this matter.
2) Protect the Affordable Care Act One More Time
	In a late breaking element, Mitch McConnell is signaling his interest in including in the tax bill a repeal of the individual coverage requirement mandate of the Affordable Care Act. Republicans need more “revenue” which they say could be used to shore up the tax cuts for the middle class! Apparently they couldn’t find the resources in the $1.5 trillion hole they have already created in budget over the next ten years, or the $300 billion estate tax break they have devised. The elimination of the individual mandate would kill the ACA, depriving it of, among other things, a pool of healthy insured people. The Congressional Budget Office believes that the number of insured would drop by 13 million people. Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and John McCain have stood up for health care for Americans. Could you write and call to ask them to do it one more time? Morgan Griffin, Legislative Aide for Lisa Murkowski, Alaska  Steve Abbott, Chief of Staff for Susan Collins, Maine  David Bennett, Legislative Aide for John McCain, Arizona
3) Congressman, Step Away From Our Teacher’s Desk
	Both the House and the Senate versions of the tax bill allow corporations to deduct all sorts of expenses, but they take that opportunity away from your town’s elementary and primary school teachers. Really? We know you tax writers are bent on decreasing tax deductions, but could you leave Ms. McGillicuddy’s $250 deduction for things she buys for her classroom alone? Isn’t that behavior you want to encourage? Here’s the chance to write any Republican Senator or member of Congress from your state. Tell them that now is a perfect time to show our teachers that the sacrifices they have been making to help equip their classrooms count with you, and should count with them.

The Mueller investigation continues, and there will be more indictments. It will be reemphasized that another nation which in no way wishes us well tried to tear apart the fabric of our democracy. Whether or not the collusion that is proved will reach the President, we will see very clearly the picture of a values-deficient Trump campaign, which demonstrated that they would do anything and say anything to win. Now, in just a year we can take the first of two steps at the ballot box to make it right.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington

#26: Make Steve Bannon a Sordid Historical Footnote

Thank you for continuing to share these messages with your friends, if you are not already on our mailing list, please click here to be added to our list. You can also follow me on Facebook. The more people we can reach, the more we contribute to this growing movement. We share these posts on our blog, A Path Forward to November 3, 2020, every two weeks, which means there will be a total of 100 missives before the Presidential election of 2020, in which our country will select a whole new course.

It is familiar in fiction - the delusional ruler, alone in his castle, raging. Jesters and flatterers are summoned, but the anger is unabated. There is much scurrying about. Knights and members of the ruler’s court are summoned. Ultimately, the ruler slumbers fitfully, and…

… Donald Trump is at peace, until the tweeting begins.

This is not a good non-fictional situation, it is fair to say. As a real estate developer, Donald Trump was in a business in which certain unscrupulous practitioners use exaggeration and misrepresentation as a business practice. His world tolerated and even encouraged ritualistic adversarial exchanges as deals were considered. Before he was sworn in, none of the virtues of the best presidents had ever found any home with him, certainly not Barrack Obama’s eloquence or intellectual grounding, or FDR’s ability to lead nations through tenacity and the strength of his ideas.

So, we are left with an unsuited and thus unsuitable president, and an ongoing governmental crisis. We must remind ourselves that we will prevail and regain a new equilibrium because we have to, and because:

• We have a constitutional system for which the checks and balances on the Presidency are very real, in which the courts and Congress can and do step in. It is the Congress that is doing too little but still is protecting Robert Mueller and sanctioning Russia, and the courts that are impeding some of the worst of the executive orders.

• We have an election in just a year in which we will take back the House and gain an extra set of brakes. This will be especially helpful in fighting back against the Trump/Pruitt decimation of environmental protection. If the election were held today, we would win 40-50 seats, exceeding the 24 we need. Donald Trump’s support has deteriorated to its lowest level.

• We have Senators McCain, Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and Corker who have openly broken ranks on specific issues. Others like Lamar Alexander of Tennessee have forged bi-partisan approaches. Even though these tales of forthrightness and occasional personal political sacrifice are far too few, they are not insignificant.

The Congress will pass a tax bill this fall, because they must. Both they and Donald Trump need to say that they did this, or they will be portrayed as having had a lost year. They just got their votes to increase the deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years, which is an unusual thing to be saying about a party that has trumpeted the need for balanced budget. Unfortunately for them, Trump has made tax cut promises requiring at least three times as much deficit spending as that $1.5 trillion. In his world, he doesn’t have to recognize that these numbers don’t add up. It’s a con.

What should we be most focused on as we do our resistance work?

We must be ever-obsessed with wealth distribution in America. Since the 1982 tax bill, tax policy has reduced the progressivity of the tax code and thus contributed to the growing concentration of wealth in the top 10%. The White House has been using mathematical gymnastics to argue that it is self-evident that any tax bill will disproportionately benefit the very rich, because they pay more taxes. That contention is false. Adding insult to injury, their draft proposals would eliminate both the estate tax, the alternative minimum tax, and lower taxes on pass through profits from limited liability companies - three taxes paid only by exceedingly wealthy people.

From this point on, it is all about evaluating the various proposals on their distributional impact. We must make certain that every tax proposal that is floated is subject to this test, and tailor our notes to Congress accordingly. There are three things we can do today:

1) Let the Ways and Means Committee Know You’re Out There
	There are 40 members of the House Ways and Means Committee, which will start the action by reviewing the proposal of their chair, Kevin Brady, which he has prepared in conjunction with Paul Ryan. The proposal is already being opposed by the Republican-leaning National Association of Home Builders. It’s complicated, but they are worried that the proposed increase in the standard deduction would decrease itemizers and thus the impact of the existing mortgage deduction, and consequently destabilize the housing market. They wanted a fix through a new tax credit, and were turned down. This back and forth is relevant because it creates a more receptive climate for your letter. The Republicans on the committee will come together to pass a bill, but many will be influenced by their mail and calls, as they pick and choose their pain and gain. The 40 members of the committee are spread across the country, so chances are good there will be one or more from your state for you to send a note or make a call. That’s good thing because it will be easier for you to deal with the defenses members are setting up to decrease their out of state email. See the committee member list here. The best argument to emphasize is the need for the bill to attend to middle class taxpayers. Please note for them that you as a voter are watching their actions on this specific issue.
2) Figure Out What is Happening on SALT, and Act Accordingly
	Republicans in higher tax states are very worried that their taxpayers will be disproportionately impacted as the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) is pared back or eliminated. This is complex, too, because the relative impact on the middle class and the very wealthy of rolling back this tax break depends on each state’s tax structure. It is certainly the case that decreasing this deduction in order to raise revenue to make it possible to eliminate the alternative minimum tax and the estate tax is a bad deal for the middle class and everyone else who doesn’t pay these two taxes. Thus, it is a good idea to go all the way back to your own state legislators from your own district. You can send them an email and make sure they are focused on what’s happening on this issue on the federal level. You can ask them to examine the impact on middle income taxpayers and be in contact with members of Congress.
3) Celebrate That Life Isn’t Just About Money
	In the midst of all the legislative focus on the making and keeping of money, a federal district court judge has blocked enforcement Trump’s awful ban on transgendered people in the military. Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly was first appointed to the bench by Ronald Reagan. She has ruled the plaintiffs are likely to ultimately win on the merits. In addition to a victory for justice and fairness, this story is about what smaller organizations can do. The organizations bringing suit were GLBQT Legal Advocates and the National Center for Lesbian Rights. Write and thank one or both of them, and if you possibly can, click and send a celebratory contribution that will help them pay for legal costs going forward. GLBQT Legal Advocates National Center for Lesbian Rights

Steve Bannon is out there somewhere, doing his venal thing. He is hoping the intensity of your effort will wane. He and his followers are kindly called “economic nationalists” by the media. He is banking on them prevailing, and so is Donald Trump. It is up to all of us to make such an outcome not just inconceivable, but impossible. You can make Steve Bannon a sordid historical footnote.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington