#80: Fiona Hill Showed Us All

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Eloquent, courageous, committed State Department and National Security Council officials taught us all a lesson in the last two weeks. It’s heartening that they are there and that they are looking out for their country. The juxtaposition of their integrity with Trump’s failure to muster any at all will stay with us for a long time.

Even though these hearings are coming to a close, the Ukraine disclosures will continue. Most notably John Bolton will feel inclined to relate what Trump said when Bolton asked for the release of the $400 million necessary for Ukraine’s defense. Bolton is interested in protecting his own defense hardliner reputation. More than any other Trump appointee, he has a “brand” independent of Trump, and is not acting beholden. If not him, perhaps we will hear more from Rudy Giuliani, who has camped out in the danger zone that has taken down other public officials. At this point in time, it is more important to him that he is on the news than what he says or what is being said about him on the news. Only sleep prevents him from saying more things damaging to Trump. He could very easily end up arrested. Beyond Ukraine disclosures, there’s also there is a very good possibility that the Supreme Court will refuse to hear arguments for shielding Trump’s tax returns, which itself will open up a new Trump-world of turpitude.

It’s important not to get confused about what the American people think about impeachment, and what it has to do with the most important presidential election of our lifetime on November 3, 2020. 70% of Americans believe that Trump did an unacceptable thing in Ukraine by asking a foreign government to intervene in our domestic politics. More than 50% think these actions warrant an impeachment inquiry, and up to 50% conclude that Trump should be impeached, convicted and removed from office. This is in comparison to the 29% who wanted that outcome for Bill Clinton.

What do the public’s views on impeachment have to do with the upcoming election? Just because voters in battleground states are less enthusiastic about impeachment than in blue states doesn’t mean that they think Trump is prime presidential material. The Ukraine narrative is just one important dimension of how voters feel about Trump, but it will be an critical element of the 2020 campaign.
Has anyone seen Nancy Pelosi slip on any banana peels lately? Her intent is to impeach the President because his impeachable offenses are obvious and thus unavoidable. She plans to conclude the official House processes as soon as she can. She believes the monumental evidence presented will boost our case on November 3, even as the Senate votes to acquit. We are in good hands.

Even so, we have let ourselves fall into the “Trump voters never change” fallacy. Five million or more Trump voters changed when we took back the House, flipped Virginia, won the state house in Kentucky and defended it in Louisiana. Where do we think those voters are coming from if not from the ranks of independents and Never Trump Republicans? Sure, it is nice for Trump or any elected official to start with 38% of voters supporting her or him no matter what. But that didn’t work so well for George McGovern and Barry Goldwater, because you have to have a way to expand from there. The issue is how many additional Republicans and Independents will go to Trump’s side in November, and the extent to which impeachment is one more reason for them to flee.

Even the sainted NPR has grown befuddled by the myth of Trump’s base and the way it could help him in the upcoming year. Their own coverage stresses that American opinion is set in stone, even though the poll results say the opposite. In the poll, 39% of independents and 24% of Republicans said that they could imagine evidence that could change their mind on impeachment. That isn’t a low number, it’s a high number. And, as has been the case for some time, Trump’s strategy for keeping the base is a huge impediment to him attracting anyone else.

Articles of impeachment will be passed in the House, and the Senate will acquit Donald Trump. It’s an election year, and the Republican Party is not going to implode itself, which is what would happen if Republican Senators removed Donald Trump from the Presidency. The sequence has been set up to go like this for some time: 

1. The Mueller report and ultimately the Ukraine debacle solidify the opposition to Donald Trump. 
2. Aggressive explication of these and other Trump misdeeds becomes our order of the day.
3.  The impeachment trial, though not securing a conviction, fully exposes Trump’s malfeasances. 
4. Further abuses become known. 
5. In the face of these disclosures, Trump’s disapproval ratings remain low, or go lower. 
6. As the election gets closer, Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes becomes narrower and narrower, an order of magnitude more narrow than the firewall he and Putin overcame in 2016. 
7. We select an excellent ticket, continue to register voters, fix our 2016 turnout problem with 2018 style turnout strategies, and win our country an election.

Impeachment is about defending the Constitution because we must, and using the subsequent disclosures and debate to win the election, because we must. It puts that many more purple states in play, and thus creates many more paths to victory.

Which states to keep in play? There’s been considerable statistical analysis of the Obama/Romney and Clinton/Trump races to see how levels of approval/disapproval correlate with vote totals from a year later. This study shows that if we win Michigan, where we won the governorship by a solid margin in 2018, and hold onto states Hillary Clinton won, we would likely be at 249 electoral votes, and would need only 21 more from these states:

• Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
• Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
• Florida - 29 electoral votes
• North Carolina - 15 electoral votes
• Georgia - 16 electoral votes
• Arizona - 11 electoral votes

This demonstrates how many more ways we have to regain the Presidency over and above winning the firewall states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which we collectively lost by 80,000 votes in 2016. For instance, if we pick up the states Hillary Clinton won and (as predicted) win Michigan, then Florida alone will put us over the top (and we have been losing it by tiny margins) or Pennsylvania and Arizona, or North Carolina and Arizona.

It’s all very encouraging and makes us want to imprint a state deeply into our psyche and our action plan. Pennsylvania would be a good place to do three things, on the way to winning the presidency there in 2020. Then, soon, this missive will take on Arizona.

1) Follow the Lead of Swing Left
	We lost Pennsylvania to Donald Trump by 44,000 votes in 2016. It never should have happened, since Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania by 5.4% in 2012 and John McCain by 10.7% in 2008. We have recovered nicely since, winning races for Governor and Senator by wide margins in 2018. In the next year we will take nothing for granted.  With its “Super State” strategy, Swing Left continues to be a “go to” organization in our effort to gain the electoral votes in targeted states. You can sign up to send letters to independent voters and/or contribute to campaign funds that will be spent in Pennsylvania once candidates are chosen. Don’t wait until November 3 to pay attention to Pennsylvania.
2) Support Registration and Turnout in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
	On election night, things might be going very well. Or, you may find yourself hoping that there are still unreported votes from Philadelphia or Pittsburgh. The National Coalition of Black Civic Participation is organizing around registration and turnout in multiple cities and states. You can give them your email and see when they need your help and go ahead and donate today so you don’t forget. The click to donate is under “Get Involved.”
3) Make Certain Candidates Understand Pennsylvania Issues
	At this point, our candidates have presented policy positions on scores of issues. Ultimately, employees of manufacturing companies and other unionized laborers are going to want to hear what the specific Democratic agenda is for the working woman and man. One could make an argument that voters in 2016 did not recognize a coherent, impassioned approach from Democrats about how they would focus on jobs and employment, Take a look at what our candidates are saying today. It’s time to watch our favorite candidates on these issues to make sure that this perception or belief doesn’t wound us in 2020.

Fiona Hill, Ambassador Marie Yovanovich, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman are exemplars. If our faith in American public servants had been waning, they have restored it. They all put themselves forward, and they were all counting on us to do the same in the next year, to stand up. That’s what we will be doing.

David Harrison
Bainbridge Island, Washington